Iraklis Therm. v Kilkisiakos prediction · Gamma Ethniki

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 17:24

Iraklis Therm. 0–0 Kilkisiakos IRAKLIS THERM. WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Iraklis Therm. win~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.939

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Iraklis Therm. are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Iraklis Therm. 54%, draw 23%, Kilkisiakos 23%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Iraklis Therm. v KilkisiakosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Iraklis Therm. win54%

Draw23%

Kilkisiakos win23%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Iraklis Therm.

Kilkisiakos

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Gamma Ethniki - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Iraklis Therm.	4	+3	8
10	Kilkisiakos	4	−4	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · iraklis therm. winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 01:48 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Iraklis Therm. a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Iraklis Therm. v Kilkisiakos~~1.74 – 1.02

~~Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 this season · since 27 Sept~~W2 D2 L0 · W0 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 8 v 1~~4 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Iraklis Therm. win

Published at 51%, 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Iraklis Therm. win	54%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Kilkisiakos win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Iraklis Therm. or draw	77%	–	–
Iraklis Therm. clean sheet	37%	–	–
Kilkisiakos clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.7%

0123450 6.9 7.2 3.5 1 11.7 10.5 5.4 2 9.4 8.9 4.5 3 5.5 5.2 2.6 4 2.5 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Iraklis Therm. down, Kilkisiakos across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,041 Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Iraklis Therm. at home: 1.50 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 2). Kilkisiakos away: 1.50 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for Iraklis Therm., 1.02 for Kilkisiakos. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~IRA 1–0 KIL · KIL 1–1 IRA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 this season · since 27 Sept

IRAKLIS THERM.

DWDW1–1 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–0

KILKISIAKOS

LLLD2–3 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 4–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Poseidon Nea Michaniona	4	+7	10
2	Finikas Polichnis	4	+1	9
3	Mpam	4	+4	8
4	Iraklis Therm.	4	+3	8
5	Agiou Nikolaou	3	+3	7
6	Makedonikos Neapolis	4	−1	4
7	Polykastrou	3	−1	3
8	Akrites Sykeon	4	−3	3
9	Panedessaikos	3	−3	1
10	Kilkisiakos	4	−4	1
11	PAO Kristoni	3	−6	1