PAOK v AEK Athens FC
PAOKAEK Athens FCCup · WED 28 OCT · Toumba Stadium
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Close to call, with PAOK just ahead.
The Pitchside prediction: PAOK 36%, draw 29%, AEK Athens FC 35%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 56%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
PAOK win36%AEK Athens FC win35%Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 18:30
RoundGreek Cup · matchday 4
VenueToumba Stadium
Match timeline
All events
PAOKMINAEK Athens FCEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
PAOK
AEK Athens FC
Last match: 18 Oct · Super League 1
Last match: 24 Oct · Super League 1
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make PAOK a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 37%, 36% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| PAOK win | 36% | 41% | −5 |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | −1 |
| AEK Athens FC win | 35% | 29% | +6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 44% | +6 |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 50% | +6 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 68% | +8 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 25% | +3 |
| PAOK or draw | 65% | 71% | −6 |
| PAOK clean sheet | 27% | – | – |
| AEK Athens FC clean sheet | 26% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Cup this season · since 2 Sept
PAOK
AEK ATHENS FC