Panathinaikos v Aris Thessalonikis
PanathinaikosAris ThessalonikisCup · WED 28 OCT · Olympic Stadium of Athens
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Panathinaikos are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Panathinaikos 55%, draw 28%, Aris Thessalonikis 17%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 45%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
Panathinaikos win55%Aris Thessalonikis win17%Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 15:30
RoundGreek Cup · matchday 4
VenueOlympic Stadium of Athens
Match timeline
All events
PanathinaikosMINAris ThessalonikisEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Panathinaikos
Aris Thessalonikis
Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League
Last match: 18 Oct · Super League 1
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Panathinaikos a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.6–0.8.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panathinaikos win | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | +2 |
| Aris Thessalonikis win | 17% | 19% | −2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 44% | 0 |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 46% | −1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | 68% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 24% | −1 |
| Panathinaikos or draw | 83% | 81% | +2 |
| Panathinaikos clean sheet | 45% | – | – |
| Aris Thessalonikis clean sheet | 20% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Cup this season · since 17 Aug
PANATHINAIKOS
ARIS THESSALONIKIS