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St Joseph S Fc v Lions Gibraltar

St Joseph S Fc

2–0Full time

Lions Gibraltar

Premier Division · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 21:31

St Joseph S Fc 2–0 Lions Gibraltar ST JOSEPH S FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG3–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said St Joseph S Fc win~~83%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.043

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

St Joseph S Fc win83%

Draw10%

Lions Gibraltar win7%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 18:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · st joseph s fc winPublished 10 Oct 21:03

83% The market–

Us83%

We make St Joseph S Fc a 83% chance to win. The model expects 3.6–0.9, and 3–0 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
St Joseph S Fc win	83%	–	–
Draw	10%	–	–
Lions Gibraltar win	7%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	79%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	92%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	63%	–	–
St Joseph S Fc or draw	93%	–	–
St Joseph S Fc clean sheet	44%	–	–
Lions Gibraltar clean sheet	4%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–0 at 8.1%

0123450 1 5.0 4.2 2 7.6 6.4 3.0 3 8.1 6.7 3.0 4 7.0 5.6 2.5 5 5.3 4.0

under 2% 5% 12%+St Joseph S Fc down, Lions Gibraltar across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 631 Premier Division matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 4.60 goals a meeting; 10 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

St Joseph S Fc at home: 2.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Lions Gibraltar away: 2.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.63 goals for St Joseph S Fc, 0.86 for Lions Gibraltar. Most likely score 3–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.60

~~Over 2.5~~10 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~STJ 3–3 LIO · LIO 0–4 STJ · STJ 3–1 LIO · STJ 6–0 LIO

Form · last six in Premier Division

ST JOSEPH S FC

DLDWWW0–0 · 2–3 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 6–0

LIONS GIBRALTAR

DDWWLL3–3 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 5–1 · 2–4 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Magpies	5	+7	11
2	St Joseph S Fc	3	+10	9
3	Lincoln Red Imps FC	3	+6	7
4	Mons Calpe	4	+2	7
5	Glacis United	5	+1	7
6	Lions Gibraltar	5	−1	7
7	Europa Point	5	−3	7
8	Europa	5	−2	5
9	College 1975	4	0	4
10	Hound Dogs	4	−9	1
11	Lynx	5	−11	1