Mons Calpe v Hound Dogs prediction · Premier Division

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 20:46

Mons Calpe 4–0 Hound Dogs MONS CALPE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mons Calpe win~~87%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.025

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mons Calpe are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mons Calpe 87%, draw 8%, Hound Dogs 5%. Over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Mons Calpe v Hound DogsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Mons Calpe win87%

Draw8%

Hound Dogs win5%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mons Calpe

Hound Dogs

12Days since last match6

Last match: 12 Oct · Premier Division (Gibraltar)

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier Division (Gibraltar)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Mons Calpe	5	+3	10
11	Hound Dogs	6	−21	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mons calpe winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

87% The market–

Us87%

We make Mons Calpe an 87% chance to win. The model expects 4.1–0.7, and 3–0 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mons Calpe v Hound Dogs~~4.12 – 0.69

~~Form · Premier Division this season · since 21 Aug~~W3 D1 L1 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 10 v 1~~5 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Mons Calpe win

Published at 86%, 87% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mons Calpe win	87%	–	–
Draw	8%	–	–
Hound Dogs win	5%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	81%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	93%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	66%	–	–
Mons Calpe or draw	95%	–	–
Mons Calpe clean sheet	52%	–	–
Hound Dogs clean sheet	3%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–0 at 8.7%

0123450 1 4.6 3.4 2 7.5 5.4 2.3 3 8.7 5.9 2.4 4 8.1 5.1 5 6.6 3.8

under 2% 5% 12%+Mons Calpe down, Hound Dogs across0–5 goals a side shown (75.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 640 Premier Division matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.6% of games this season, across 33 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mons Calpe at home: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Hound Dogs away: 0.33 scored, 5.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

4.12 goals for Mons Calpe, 0.69 for Hound Dogs. Most likely score 3–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MON 1–1 HOU · HOU 0–4 MON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier Division this season · since 21 Aug

MONS CALPE

LWDWW1–2 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 3–2

HOUND DOGS

DLLLLL1–1 · 1–5 · 0–4 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 0–8

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	St Joseph S Fc	5	+20	15
2	Magpies	6	+12	14
3	Lincoln Red Imps FC	5	+9	13
4	Glacis United	6	+5	10
5	Mons Calpe	5	+3	10
6	Europa Point	7	−1	10
7	Europa	7	−2	8
8	Lions Gibraltar	6	−3	7
9	College 1975	5	−7	4
10	Lynx	8	−15	1
11	Hound Dogs	6	−21	1