Magpies v St Joseph S Fc prediction · Premier Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

MagpiesDrawSt Joseph S Fc

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:00

Before kick-off · Match result · St Joseph S Fc 70%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

St Joseph S Fc are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Magpies 13%, draw 17%, St Joseph S Fc 70%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Magpies v St Joseph S FcBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Magpies win13%

Draw17%

St Joseph S Fc win70%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Magpies

St Joseph S Fc

6Days since last match12

Last match: 24 Oct · Premier Division (Gibraltar)

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier Division (Gibraltar)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · st joseph s fc winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · updated 25 Oct 01:22 · locked at kick-off

70% The market–

Us70%

We make St Joseph S Fc a 70% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–2.4, and 0–2 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Magpies v St Joseph S Fc~~0.87 – 2.38

~~Form · last six in Premier Division this season · since 28 Aug~~W5 D1 L0 · W5 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 14 v 15~~2 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · St Joseph S Fc win

Published at 71%, 70% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Magpies win	13%	–	–
Draw	17%	–	–
St Joseph S Fc win	70%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	41%	–	–
Magpies or draw	30%	–	–
Magpies clean sheet	11%	–	–
St Joseph S Fc clean sheet	43%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 10.8%

0123450 4.4 9.9 10.8 8.3 5.1 2.61 3.9 7.7 8.8 6.8 4.1 2.12 3.5 3.9 3.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Magpies down, St Joseph S Fc across0–5 goals a side shown (95.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 642 Premier Division matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.9% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Magpies at home: 2.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). St Joseph S Fc away: 3.83 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.87 goals for Magpies, 2.38 for St Joseph S Fc. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~STJ 4–0 MAG · MAG 0–2 STJ · MAG 0–2 STJ · MAG 1–3 STJ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier Division this season · since 28 Aug

MAGPIES

WDWWWW2–0 · 1–1 · 4–0 · 3–2 · 6–1 · 3–0

ST JOSEPH S FC

WWWWW2–1 · 3–0 · 6–0 · 2–0 · 8–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	St Joseph S Fc	5	+20	15
2	Magpies	6	+12	14
3	Lincoln Red Imps FC	5	+9	13
4	Mons Calpe	6	+7	13
5	Glacis United	6	+5	10
6	Europa Point	7	−1	10
7	Europa	7	−2	8
8	Lions Gibraltar	6	−3	7
9	College 1975	5	−7	4
10	Lynx	8	−15	1
11	Hound Dogs	7	−25	1