Magpies v Europa Point prediction · Premier Division

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 01:40

Magpies 6–1 Europa Point MAGPIES WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Magpies win~~57%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.284

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.390

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Magpies are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Magpies 57%, draw 19%, Europa Point 24%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Magpies v Europa PointBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Magpies win57%

Draw19%

Europa Point win24%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Magpies

Europa Point

28Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Sept · Premier Division (Gibraltar)

Last match: 11 Oct · Premier Division (Gibraltar)

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Magpies	5	+7	11
5	Europa Point	6	+4	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · magpies winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 12 Oct 04:02 · locked at kick-off

57% The market49%

Us57%

~~Market~~49%

We make Magpies a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Magpies v Europa Point~~2.27 – 1.41

~~Form · Premier Division this season · since 22 Aug~~W3 D2 L0 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 10~~2 v 5

~~The market · Magpies win~~49% · ours 57%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Magpies win The market, margin stripped

Published at 62%, 57% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Magpies win	57%	49%	+8
Draw	19%	22%	−3
Europa Point win	24%	29%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	69%	68%	+1
Both teams to score	65%	67%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	49%	46%	+3
Magpies or draw	76%	71%	+5
Magpies clean sheet	26%	–	–
Europa Point clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.5%

0123450 2.9 4.1 2.7 1 6.4 7.9 5.4 2.6 2 6.7 8.5 5.8 2.8 3 5.0 6.4 4.3 2.1 4 2.9 3.7 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Magpies down, Europa Point across0–5 goals a side shown (95.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 636 Premier Division matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.30 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Magpies at home: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Europa Point away: 1.67 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.27 goals for Magpies, 1.41 for Europa Point. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.30

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~EUR 0–3 MAG · MAG 0–1 EUR · EUR 0–4 MAG · EUR 0–7 MAG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier Division this season · since 22 Aug

MAGPIES

DWDWW1–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 4–0 · 3–2

EUROPA POINT

DLLWWW2–2 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 4–2 · 2–1 · 7–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	St Joseph S Fc	4	+12	12
2	Magpies	5	+7	11
3	Lincoln Red Imps FC	4	+8	10
4	Glacis United	6	+5	10
5	Europa Point	6	+4	10
6	Mons Calpe	5	+3	10
7	Lions Gibraltar	6	−3	7
8	Europa	6	−4	5
9	College 1975	5	−7	4
10	Lynx	6	−12	1
11	Hound Dogs	5	−13	1