Lions Gibraltar v Mons Calpe prediction · Premier Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Lions GibraltarDrawMons Calpe

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Mons Calpe 58%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mons Calpe are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lions Gibraltar 23%, draw 19%, Mons Calpe 58%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Lions Gibraltar v Mons CalpeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Lions Gibraltar win23%

Draw19%

Mons Calpe win58%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lions Gibraltar

Mons Calpe

17Days since last match3

Last match: 10 Oct · Premier Division (Gibraltar)

Last match: 24 Oct · Premier Division (Gibraltar)

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Mons Calpe	6	+7	13
8	Lions Gibraltar	6	−3	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mons calpe winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

58% The market–

Us58%

We make Mons Calpe a 58% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–2.4, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lions Gibraltar v Mons Calpe~~1.42 – 2.42

~~Form · Premier Division this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 13~~8 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lions Gibraltar win	23%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Mons Calpe win	58%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	72%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	52%	–	–
Lions Gibraltar or draw	42%	–	–
Lions Gibraltar clean sheet	11%	–	–
Mons Calpe clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.3%

0123450 2.5 5.8 6.2 4.8 3.0 1 3.8 7.5 8.3 6.3 3.8 2.02 2.6 5.3 5.8 4.4 2.6 3 2.6 2.8 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lions Gibraltar down, Mons Calpe across0–5 goals a side shown (94.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 642 Premier Division matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.9% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.30 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lions Gibraltar at home: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Mons Calpe away: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Lions Gibraltar, 2.42 for Mons Calpe. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.30

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MON 3–1 LIO · LIO 0–3 MON · MON 0–2 LIO · MON 0–2 LIO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier Division this season · since 22 Aug

LIONS GIBRALTAR

DWWLLL1–1 · 2–1 · 5–1 · 2–4 · 0–4 · 0–2

MONS CALPE

LWDWWW1–2 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	St Joseph S Fc	5	+20	15
2	Magpies	6	+12	14
3	Lincoln Red Imps FC	5	+9	13
4	Mons Calpe	6	+7	13
5	Glacis United	6	+5	10
6	Europa Point	7	−1	10
7	Europa	7	−2	8
8	Lions Gibraltar	6	−3	7
9	College 1975	5	−7	4
10	Lynx	8	−15	1
11	Hound Dogs	7	−25	1