Lincoln Red Imps FC v Lions Gibraltar prediction · Premier Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Lincoln Red Imps FCDrawLions Gibraltar

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Lincoln Red Imps FC 79%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lincoln Red Imps FC are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lincoln Red Imps FC 79%, draw 13%, Lions Gibraltar 8%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Lincoln Red Imps FC v Lions GibraltarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Lincoln Red Imps FC win79%

Draw13%

Lions Gibraltar win8%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 18:30

RoundMatchday 8

VenueVictoria Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lincoln Red Imps FC

Lions Gibraltar

3Days since last match15

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

Last match: 10 Oct · Premier Division (Gibraltar)

3Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Lincoln Red Imps FC	5	+9	13
8	Lions Gibraltar	6	−3	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lincoln red imps fc winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

79% The market78%

Us79%

~~Market~~78%

We make Lincoln Red Imps FC a 79% chance to win. The market has them at 78%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.9–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lincoln Red Imps FC v Lions Gibraltar~~2.85 – 0.74

~~Form · Premier Division this season · since 22 Aug~~W4 D1 L0 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 13 v 7~~3 v 8

~~The market · Lincoln Red Imps FC win~~78% · ours 79%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lincoln Red Imps FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 78% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lincoln Red Imps FC win	79%	78%	+1
Draw	13%	13%	0
Lions Gibraltar win	8%	9%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	68%	73%	−5
Both teams to score	47%	56%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	47%	52%	−5
Lincoln Red Imps FC or draw	92%	91%	+1
Lincoln Red Imps FC clean sheet	49%	–	–
Lions Gibraltar clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.1%

0123450 3.3 2.5 1 8.6 5.8 2.2 2 11.1 7.8 3.0 3 10.1 7.1 2.7 4 7.2 5.0 5 4.3 3.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Lincoln Red Imps FC down, Lions Gibraltar across0–5 goals a side shown (91.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 642 Premier Division matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.9% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lincoln Red Imps FC at home: 2.50 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Lions Gibraltar away: 1.50 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.85 goals for Lincoln Red Imps FC, 0.74 for Lions Gibraltar. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~LIO 1–1 LIN · LIN 2–1 LIO · LIO 1–2 LIN · LIN 4–0 LIO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier Division this season · since 22 Aug

LINCOLN RED IMPS FC

WWDWW2–0 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–1

LIONS GIBRALTAR

DWWLLL1–1 · 2–1 · 5–1 · 2–4 · 0–4 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	St Joseph S Fc	5	+20	15
2	Magpies	6	+12	14
3	Lincoln Red Imps FC	5	+9	13
4	Mons Calpe	6	+7	13
5	Glacis United	6	+5	10
6	Europa Point	7	−1	10
7	Europa	7	−2	8
8	Lions Gibraltar	6	−3	7
9	College 1975	5	−7	4
10	Lynx	8	−15	1
11	Hound Dogs	7	−25	1