Hound Dogs v St Joseph S Fc prediction · Premier Division

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 21:01

Hound Dogs 0–8 St Joseph S Fc ST JOSEPH S FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT0–4 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said St Joseph S Fc win~~96%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.002

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

St Joseph S Fc are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hound Dogs 1%, draw 3%, St Joseph S Fc 96%. Over 2.5 goals 90%, both teams to score 31%.

The AI’s read on Hound Dogs v St Joseph S FcBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Hound Dogs win1%

Draw3%

St Joseph S Fc win96%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 18:30

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hound Dogs

St Joseph S Fc

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Premier Division (Gibraltar)

Last match: 10 Oct · Premier Division (Gibraltar)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	St Joseph S Fc	4	+12	12
11	Hound Dogs	5	−13	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · st joseph s fc winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

96% The market–

Us96%

We make St Joseph S Fc a 96% chance to win. The model expects 0.4–5.7, and 0–4 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hound Dogs v St Joseph S Fc~~0.39 – 5.70

~~Form · Premier Division this season · since 21 Aug~~W0 D1 L4 · W4 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 1 v 12~~11 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hound Dogs win	1%	–	–
Draw	3%	–	–
St Joseph S Fc win	96%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	90%	–	–
Both teams to score	31%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	97%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	79%	–	–
Hound Dogs or draw	4%	–	–
Hound Dogs clean sheet	1%	–	–
St Joseph S Fc clean sheet	69%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–4 at 9.4%

0123450 2.5 5.5 8.1 9.4 9.21 2.5 3.6 3.9 3.52 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hound Dogs down, St Joseph S Fc across0–5 goals a side shown (55.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 637 Premier Division matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.0% of games this season, across 30 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 5.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hound Dogs at home: 0.67 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). St Joseph S Fc away: 3.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.39 goals for Hound Dogs, 5.70 for St Joseph S Fc. Most likely score 0–4.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~5.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~STJ 6–0 HOU · HOU 0–5 STJ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier Division this season · since 21 Aug

HOUND DOGS

DLLLL1–1 · 1–5 · 0–4 · 1–2 · 0–4

ST JOSEPH S FC

WWWW2–1 · 3–0 · 6–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Magpies	6	+12	14
2	St Joseph S Fc	4	+12	12
3	Lincoln Red Imps FC	4	+8	10
4	Glacis United	6	+5	10
5	Mons Calpe	5	+3	10
6	Europa Point	7	−1	10
7	Lions Gibraltar	6	−3	7
8	Europa	6	−4	5
9	College 1975	5	−7	4
10	Lynx	6	−12	1
11	Hound Dogs	5	−13	1