Europa v Lynx prediction · Premier Division

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 22:58

Europa 2–0 Lynx EUROPA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Europa win~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.213

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Europa are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Europa 62%, draw 21%, Lynx 17%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Europa v LynxBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Europa win62%

Draw21%

Lynx win17%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueVictoria Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Europa

Lynx

13Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · Premier Division (Gibraltar)

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier Division (Gibraltar)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Europa	6	−4	5
10	Lynx	7	−13	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · europa winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 19 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

62% The market–

Us62%

We make Europa a 62% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Europa v Lynx~~1.99 – 0.89

~~Form · last six in Premier Division this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 5 v 1~~8 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Europa win

Published at 64%, 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Europa win	62%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Lynx win	17%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Europa or draw	83%	–	–
Europa clean sheet	42%	–	–
Lynx clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.7%

0123450 6.1 5.5 2.4 1 11.7 9.4 4.3 2 10.9 9.1 4.1 3 7.2 6.0 2.7 4 3.7 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Europa down, Lynx across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 639 Premier Division matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.5% of games this season, across 32 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Europa at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Lynx away: 0.67 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.99 goals for Europa, 0.89 for Lynx. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~EUR 3–1 LYN · LYN 1–0 EUR · LYN 0–2 EUR · EUR 0–2 LYN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier Division this season · since 22 Aug

EUROPA

DWDLLL2–2 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 0–2

LYNX

LLLLLL0–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 0–6 · 2–3 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	St Joseph S Fc	5	+20	15
2	Magpies	6	+12	14
3	Lincoln Red Imps FC	5	+9	13
4	Glacis United	6	+5	10
5	Mons Calpe	5	+3	10
6	Europa Point	7	−1	10
7	Lions Gibraltar	6	−3	7
8	Europa	6	−4	5
9	College 1975	5	−7	4
10	Lynx	7	−13	1
11	Hound Dogs	6	−21	1