Young Apostles v Aduana Stars prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Young Apostles 1–0 Aduana Stars YOUNG APOSTLES WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Young Apostles win~~45%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.451

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.474

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Young Apostles win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Young Apostles 45% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–32–24
1′KICK-OFF Young Apostles v Aduana Stars
8′Little has changed for our model: Young Apostles 45% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–33–24
11′🟨 YELLOW · 11' Young Apostles
16′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Aduana Stars
45′⚽ GOAL · 49' Young Apostles 1–0 Aduana Stars
45′HALF-TIME Young Apostles 1–0 Aduana Stars
46′SECOND HALF Young Apostles 1–0 Aduana Stars
54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Aduana Stars
58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Aduana Stars
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Aduana Stars
90′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Young Apostles
FTFULL TIME Young Apostles 1–0 Aduana Stars
FTYoung Apostles 1–0 Aduana Stars · Young Apostles win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Young Apostles win45%

Draw30%

Aduana Stars win25%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

VenueWenchi Sports Stadium

Line-ups

Young Apostles

Aduana Stars

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Young Apostles

Aduana Stars

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Aduana Stars	5	+3	10
17	Young Apostles	5	−7	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Young Apostles

Formation not confirmed

16 O. Wahabu

4 I. Nyaabila

15 R. A. Rahman

25 M. Amegbe

68 D. Antwi

6 S. Adamu

8 R. Abubakar

21 S. Prempeh

40 R. Opoku

55 A. Kingsford

11 H. Issah

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · B. Twum

20 · J. Afram

23 · S. Issah

24 · M. Illiasu

34 · M. Zakari Abdul

5 · A. G. Muftaw

10 · I. Huziaf

19 · A. F. Salifu

60 · E. Abuu

Aduana Stars

Formation not confirmed

41 O. Prince

3 B. Anim

20 A. Boakye

24 S. Kuffour

25 L. Mohammed

4 R. Agyemang

7 H. Anponsa

8 S. Saana

10 S. Amankona

19 M. Afriyie

30 S. Tenedu

Coach · Aristica Cioaba

Substitutes

15 · S. Badu

17 · A. Adams

2 · P. Otubua

6 · S. Mohammed

18 · P. Mensah

40 · S. Baafada

11 · E. Abban

23 · F. Zackaria

Our number · young apostles winPublished 11 Oct 16:05

45% The market44%

Us45%

~~Market~~44%

We make Young Apostles a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.1–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · young apostles win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Young Apostles win	45%	44%	+1
Draw	30%	30%	−1
Aduana Stars win	25%	26%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	29%	36%	−7
Both teams to score	34%	43%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	55%	61%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	12%	18%	−6
Young Apostles or draw	75%	74%	+1
Young Apostles clean sheet	48%	–	–
Aduana Stars clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 18.2%

0123450 14.8 12.5 4.3 1 18.2 11.8 4.7 2 9.7 7.1 2.7 3 3.7 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Young Apostles down, Aduana Stars across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,557 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.5% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 4.25 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Young Apostles at home: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Aduana Stars away: 0.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.12 goals for Young Apostles, 0.74 for Aduana Stars. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~4.25

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ADU 3–1 YOU · YOU 2–2 ADU · ADU 2–2 YOU · YOU 3–2 ADU

Form · last six in Premier League

YOUNG APOSTLES

WLWLLL2–0 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 0–1

ADUANA STARS

LDLWWW0–3 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Medeama	5	+5	11
2	Samartex	5	+4	11
3	Port City	5	+4	10
4	Aduana Stars	5	+3	10
5	Basake Holy Stars	5	−1	9
6	Hearts of Oak	5	+4	8
7	Heart of Lions	5	+1	8
8	Swedru All Blacks	6	0	8
9	Asante Kotoko	6	−1	8
10	Ashanti Gold	5	+1	7
11	Bechem United	5	−2	7
12	Vision	5	+1	6
13	Karela	5	−1	6
14	Debibi United	5	0	4
15	Bibiani Gold Stars	5	−3	4
16	Berekum Chelsea	5	−4	4
17	Young Apostles	5	−7	3
18	Dreams	5	−4	2