Vision v Hearts of Oak prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42

Vision 0–1 Hearts of Oak VISION WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTUNDER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Vision win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.888

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Vision win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: Vision was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–32–23
1′KICK-OFF Vision v Hearts of Oak
28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Vision win 37%)
34′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Hearts of Oak
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Vision win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
40′We said Vision at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–48–19
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Vision
45′HALF-TIME Vision 0–0 Hearts of Oak
46′SECOND HALF Vision 0–0 Hearts of Oak
49′We said Vision at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–54–17
54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Vision
58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Hearts of Oak
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Vision win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
61′We said Vision at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–63–14
61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Vision
68′We said Vision at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–70–11
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Vision win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
75′We said Vision at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–77–9
81′We said Vision at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–85–6
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Vision win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
87′A goal for Hearts of Oak on 86′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 0–5–95
87′We said Vision at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at under 1%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Vision 0–1 Hearts of Oak
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Hearts of Oak win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 5%)
FTFULL TIME Vision 0–1 Hearts of Oak
FTVision 0–1 Hearts of Oak · Vision win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Under 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vision are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vision 45%, draw 32%, Hearts of Oak 23%. Over 2.5 goals 23%, both teams to score 28%.

The AI’s read on Vision v Hearts of OakBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Vision win45%

Draw32%

Hearts of Oak win23%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueNii Adjei Kraku II Sports Complex

Line-ups

Vision

Hearts of Oak

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vision

Hearts of Oak

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Premier League (Ghana)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Hearts of Oak	6	+5	11
16	Vision	6	−1	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Vision

Formation not confirmed

26 G. Ametefe

2 V. Abdul-Rahman

4 B. Kwarteng

5 I. Larbi

18 M. Sam-An

24 S. M. Iddrisu

29 M. Alidu

31 S. Aqetey

32 M. Ayana

39 R. Quaye

43 Z. Alhasaan

Coach · Nana Agyemang

Substitutes

22 · R. Mensah

12 · A. N. Konate

25 · B. Kofi Kpoh

33 · J. Appau

7 · M. Nyakotey

14 · N. K. Amoah

15 · K. Appiah

30 · A. Sumaila

19 · F. Mohammed

Hearts of Oak

Formation not confirmed

16 B. Asare

2 P. Amevor

4 A. Mohammed

5 K. Asibey

30 A. Adam

10 R. Amponsah

15 D. Nsobila

21 K. B. Henry

35 Y. Baafi

9 F. Duku

17 K. Kourouma

Coach · –

Substitutes

33 · S. Shuaib

13 · R. Mensah

23 · F. Atobah

37 · G. Cudjoe

8 · K. Asmah

14 · M. Hussein

18 · A. Karim

32 · E. Amoh

20 · J. Antwi

Our number · vision winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Vision a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–0.6, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 20%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vision v Hearts of Oak~~1.01 – 0.63

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 11~~16 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vision win	45%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Hearts of Oak win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	23%	–	–
Both teams to score	28%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	48%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	9%	–	–
Vision or draw	77%	–	–
Vision clean sheet	54%	–	–
Hearts of Oak clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 20.5%

0123450 18.8 13.2 3.9 1 20.5 11.2 3.8 2 9.8 6.1 3 3.4 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vision down, Hearts of Oak across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,565 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.6% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 1.25 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vision at home: 1.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Hearts of Oak away: 0.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.01 goals for Vision, 0.63 for Hearts of Oak. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~1.25

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~VIS 1–0 HEA · HEA 1–0 VIS · VIS 1–1 HEA · HEA 1–0 VIS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 5 Sept

VISION

WLDDDL3–0 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–4

HEARTS OF OAK

WWDLDW4–0 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Medeama	6	+7	14
2	Hearts of Oak	6	+5	11
3	Samartex	6	+3	11
4	Port City	6	+3	10
5	Ashanti Gold	6	+2	10
6	Aduana Stars	6	+2	10
7	Bechem United	6	0	10
8	Karela	6	0	9
9	Basake Holy Stars	6	−3	9
10	Swedru All Blacks	6	0	8
11	Heart of Lions	6	−1	8
12	Asante Kotoko	6	−1	8
13	Berekum Chelsea	6	−1	7
14	Bibiani Gold Stars	6	−1	7
15	Young Apostles	6	−6	6
16	Vision	6	−1	6
17	Debibi United	6	−3	4
18	Dreams	6	−5	2