Samartex v Medeama prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Samartex 2–1 Medeama SAMARTEX WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Samartex win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.417

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Samartex are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Samartex 47%, draw 28%, Medeama 24%. Over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 35%.

The AI’s read on Samartex v MedeamaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Samartex win47%

Draw28%

Medeama win24%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueSamartex Park

Line-ups

Samartex

Medeama

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Samartex

Medeama

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Premier League (Ghana)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Samartex

Formation not confirmed

16 M. Zakari

17 I. Afful

32 J. Sewornu

28 J. Nsenkyire

24 E. Essien

14 A. Sarpong

5 S. Kyei

10 J. Fuseini

2 M. Adjetey

19 C. Boateng

20 E. K. Asamoah

Coach · Christopher Ennin

Substitutes

1 · S. R. Issah

25 · A. Amoako

29 · H. Musah

12 · G. Sefah

23 · R. Grippman

18 · E. Okrah

3 · J. Bediako

4 · K. Owusu

9 · G. Osei

Medeama

Formation not confirmed

1 Y. Saeed

4 Y. Mubarik

20 E. Annor

8 E. Dogli

12 A. Yaya

19 K. Braye

23 P. Owusu

6 E. Adade

32 P. Owusu

33 K. Nkrumah

26 K. Amoah

Coach · Ibrahim Tanko

Substitutes

16 · F. Kyei

2 · P. Arhin

3 · D. Baffoe

10 · N. K. Babil

11 · E. Fobi

24 · O. Jelilu

35 · S. Usman

28 · D. Amponsah

38 · Y. Sokpoli

Our number · samartex winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Samartex a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 18%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Samartex v Medeama~~1.18 – 0.74

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 11 v 14~~3 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Samartex win	47%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Medeama win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	30%	–	–
Both teams to score	35%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	56%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	13%	–	–
Samartex or draw	76%	–	–
Samartex clean sheet	48%	–	–
Medeama clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 18.2%

0123450 13.7 11.9 4.1 1 18.2 11.6 4.7 2 10.1 7.4 2.8 3 4.1 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Samartex down, Medeama across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,567 Premier League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.1% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Samartex at home: 1.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Medeama away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for Samartex, 0.74 for Medeama. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 9

~~Both scored~~2 of 9

~~Last meetings~~SAM 0–0 MED · MED 0–0 SAM · MED 1–1 SAM · SAM 2–1 MED

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 6 Sept

SAMARTEX

WWDDWL3–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1

MEDEAMA

DDWWWW1–1 · 2–2 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Medeama	6	+7	14
2	Hearts of Oak	7	+6	14
3	Samartex	6	+3	11
4	Port City	6	+3	10
5	Ashanti Gold	6	+2	10
6	Aduana Stars	6	+2	10
7	Berekum Chelsea	7	+1	10
8	Bechem United	6	0	10
9	Karela	6	0	9
10	Basake Holy Stars	6	−3	9
11	Swedru All Blacks	6	0	8
12	Asante Kotoko	6	−1	8
13	Heart of Lions	7	−3	8
14	Bibiani Gold Stars	6	−1	7
15	Young Apostles	6	−6	6
16	Vision	7	−2	6
17	Debibi United	6	−3	4
18	Dreams	6	−5	2