Medeama v Heart of Lions prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Medeama 3–1 Heart of Lions MEDEAMA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Medeama win~~63%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.204

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.190

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Medeama win at 63%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Medeama 63% before kick-off, 63% now. 0–0 · 63–24–14
1′KICK-OFF Medeama v Heart of Lions
2′Little has changed for our model: Medeama 63% before kick-off, 62% now. 0–0 · 62–24–14
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Medeama 1–0 Heart of Lions
45′HALF-TIME Medeama 1–0 Heart of Lions
46′SECOND HALF Medeama 1–0 Heart of Lions
52′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Heart of Lions
61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Medeama
64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Heart of Lions
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Medeama 2–0 Heart of Lions
67′⚽ GOAL · 66' Medeama 3–0 Heart of Lions
90′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Medeama
90′⚽ GOAL · 95' Medeama 3–1 Heart of Lions
FTFULL TIME Medeama 3–1 Heart of Lions
FTMedeama 3–1 Heart of Lions · Medeama win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Medeama win63%

Draw22%

Heart of Lions win15%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

VenueTNA Park

Line-ups

Medeama

Heart of Lions

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Medeama

Heart of Lions

7Days since last match7

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Medeama	5	+5	11
7	Heart of Lions	5	+1	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Medeama

Formation not confirmed

1 Y. Saeed

4 Y. Mubarik

6 E. Adade

8 E. Dogli

12 A. Yaya

26 K. Amoah

23 P. Owusu

19 K. Braye

20 E. Annor

28 D. Amponsah

33 K. Nkrumah

Coach · Ibrahim Tanko

Substitutes

16 · F. Kyei

2 · P. Arhin

3 · D. Baffoe

24 · O. Jelilu

5 · E. Owusu

11 · E. Fobi

32 · P. Owusu

38 · Y. Sokpoli

– · N. K. Babil

Heart of Lions

Formation not confirmed

16 E. Wireko

3 P. Amartey

5 D. Davids Jr

13 P. B. Awuah

33 G. Osei

2 H. Fuseini

6 I. Addo

11 F. Odoom

14 J. Cobbinah

32 S. Afoakwa

10 M. Yakubu

Coach · Kwaku Hayford Bashir

Substitutes

17 · F. Ali

7 · W. Oduro

8 · A. Mensah

24 · A. Owusu

25 · E. Bonsu

18 · K. Asenso

35 · S. Alabani

40 · K. Agbadji

Our number · medeama winPublished 11 Oct 16:05

63% The market65%

Us63%

~~Market~~65%

We make Medeama a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–0.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · medeama win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Medeama win	63%	65%	−2
Draw	22%	24%	−2
Heart of Lions win	15%	11%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	41%	40%	+1
Both teams to score	37%	35%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	66%	64%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	21%	22%	−1
Medeama or draw	85%	89%	−4
Medeama clean sheet	53%	–	–
Heart of Lions clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.2%

0123450 9.3 7.0 2.0 1 17.2 9.6 3.3 2 13.8 8.7 2.8 3 7.8 4.9 4 3.4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Medeama down, Heart of Lions across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,557 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.5% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Medeama at home: 3.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Heart of Lions away: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for Medeama, 0.64 for Heart of Lions. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~MED 5–2 HEA · HEA 0–1 MED · HEA 1–0 MED · MED 0–0 HEA

Form · last six in Premier League

MEDEAMA

LDDWWW2–4 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 1–0

HEART OF LIONS

LDLDWW2–5 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Medeama	5	+5	11
2	Samartex	5	+4	11
3	Port City	5	+4	10
4	Aduana Stars	5	+3	10
5	Basake Holy Stars	5	−1	9
6	Hearts of Oak	5	+4	8
7	Heart of Lions	5	+1	8
8	Swedru All Blacks	6	0	8
9	Asante Kotoko	6	−1	8
10	Ashanti Gold	5	+1	7
11	Bechem United	5	−2	7
12	Vision	5	+1	6
13	Karela	5	−1	6
14	Debibi United	5	0	4
15	Bibiani Gold Stars	5	−3	4
16	Berekum Chelsea	5	−4	4
17	Young Apostles	5	−7	3
18	Dreams	5	−4	2