Medeama v Aduana Stars prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

MedeamaDrawAduana Stars

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Medeama 62%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Medeama are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Medeama 62%, draw 23%, Aduana Stars 15%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 35%.

The AI’s read on Medeama v Aduana StarsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Medeama win62%

Draw23%

Aduana Stars win15%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueTNA Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Medeama

Aduana Stars

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League (Ghana)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Medeama	7	+6	14
4	Aduana Stars	7	+3	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · medeama winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

62% The market–

Us62%

We make Medeama a 62% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–0.6, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 19%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Medeama v Aduana Stars~~1.59 – 0.60

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 13 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 14 v 13~~2 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Medeama win	62%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Aduana Stars win	15%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	35%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	63%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Medeama or draw	85%	–	–
Medeama clean sheet	55%	–	–
Aduana Stars clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 18.7%

0123450 10.5 7.8 2.1 1 18.7 9.7 3.2 2 13.9 8.3 2.5 3 7.4 4.4 4 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Medeama down, Aduana Stars across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,575 Premier League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.1% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.70 goals a meeting; 1 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Medeama at home: 3.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Aduana Stars away: 0.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Medeama, 0.60 for Aduana Stars. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.70

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MED 1–1 ADU · ADU 0–0 MED · MED 2–0 ADU · ADU 2–2 MED

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 13 Sept

MEDEAMA

DWWWWL2–2 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 1–2

ADUANA STARS

LWWWLW0–1 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hearts of Oak	8	+7	17
2	Medeama	7	+6	14
3	Samartex	7	+4	14
4	Aduana Stars	7	+3	13
5	Basake Holy Stars	8	−3	12
6	Port City	7	+3	11
7	Swedru All Blacks	7	+2	11
8	Asante Kotoko	7	0	11
9	Berekum Chelsea	7	+1	10
10	Ashanti Gold	7	+1	10
11	Bechem United	7	−1	10
12	Karela	7	−2	9
13	Heart of Lions	7	−3	8
14	Debibi United	7	−2	7
15	Bibiani Gold Stars	7	−2	7
16	Young Apostles	7	−7	6
17	Vision	7	−2	6
18	Dreams	7	−5	3