Karela v Port City prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

KarelaDrawPort City

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Karela 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Karela are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Karela 53%, draw 27%, Port City 20%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 34%.

The AI’s read on Karela v Port CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Karela win53%

Draw27%

Port City win20%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueNaa Sheriga Sports Centre

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Karela

Port City

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League (Ghana)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Port City	7	+3	11
12	Karela	7	−2	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · karela winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Karela a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 19%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Karela v Port City~~1.31 – 0.67

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 13 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 11~~12 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Karela win	53%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Port City win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	32%	–	–
Both teams to score	34%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	58%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	14%	–	–
Karela or draw	80%	–	–
Karela clean sheet	51%	–	–
Port City clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 19.0%

0123450 12.9 10.4 3.2 1 19.0 10.9 4.1 2 11.7 7.8 2.6 3 5.2 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Karela down, Port City across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,575 Premier League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.1% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Karela at home: 1.33 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Port City away: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Karela, 0.67 for Port City. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 13 Sept

KARELA

WLWLWL3–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–2

PORT CITY

WWLWLD2–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hearts of Oak	8	+7	17
2	Medeama	7	+6	14
3	Samartex	7	+4	14
4	Aduana Stars	7	+3	13
5	Basake Holy Stars	8	−3	12
6	Port City	7	+3	11
7	Swedru All Blacks	7	+2	11
8	Asante Kotoko	7	0	11
9	Berekum Chelsea	7	+1	10
10	Ashanti Gold	7	+1	10
11	Bechem United	7	−1	10
12	Karela	7	−2	9
13	Heart of Lions	7	−3	8
14	Debibi United	7	−2	7
15	Bibiani Gold Stars	7	−2	7
16	Young Apostles	7	−7	6
17	Vision	7	−2	6
18	Dreams	7	−5	3