Karela v Dreams prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Karela 1–0 Dreams KARELA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Karela win~~51%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.368

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.287

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 5 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Karela win at 51%.
1′KICK-OFF Karela v Dreams
3′Much as we predicted: Karela was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–29–22
4′Much as we predicted: Karela was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–29–22
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Karela 1–0 Dreams
45′HALF-TIME Karela 1–0 Dreams
46′SECOND HALF Karela 1–0 Dreams
FTFULL TIME Karela 1–0 Dreams
FTKarela 1–0 Dreams · Karela win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Karela win51%

Draw26%

Dreams win23%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

VenueNaa Sheriga Sports Centre

Line-ups

Karela

Dreams

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Karela

Dreams

10Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Karela	5	−1	6
18	Dreams	5	−4	2

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Karela

Formation not confirmed

16 A. Ganiu

2 F. Mohammed

3 F. Gariba

20 J. Bekoe

30 A. Ali

13 M. Abubakar

24 E. Afurapoe

29 M. Mankuyeli

10 J. Manyina

11 E. Antwi Konadu

14 M. Zaidan

Coach · Nurudeen Amadu

Substitutes

60 · K. Musah

5 · F. Ackom

6 · J. Quansah

33 · M. Awal

41 · N. Mahfuz

40 · N. Y. Mohammed

49 · E. Armegah

9 · F. Mortu

Dreams

Formation not confirmed

32 R. Osman

5 K. Kofi

28 K. Ahiable

29 Y. Isaac

35 I. Sherif

8 S. Abdullah

20 T. Dhaud

21 Y. Guede

9 A. Razak Salifu

18 J. Agbovi

38 M. Nazir

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · G. Aseako

42 · R. Sarkodie

2 · A. O. Nauffal

4 · C. Owusu

6 · D. Tetteh

10 · A. Aminu

13 · A. Duah

24 · C. Amponsah

44 · B. Kokonu

Our number · karela winPublished 11 Oct 15:49

51% The market57%

Us51%

~~Market~~57%

We make Karela a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · karela win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 51% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Karela win	51%	57%	−6
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Dreams win	23%	16%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	37%	38%	−1
Both teams to score	40%	40%	0
Over 1.5 goals	63%	63%	0
Over 3.5 goals	18%	20%	−2
Karela or draw	77%	84%	−7
Karela clean sheet	45%	–	–
Dreams clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.4%

0123450 10.7 10.2 3.8 1 16.4 11.5 5.0 2 10.5 8.4 3.4 3 4.8 3.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Karela down, Dreams across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,557 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.5% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Karela at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Dreams away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Karela, 0.81 for Dreams. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DRE 0–1 KAR · KAR 1–1 DRE · KAR 1–2 DRE · DRE 0–1 KAR

Form · last six in Premier League

KARELA

LLWLWL0–1 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–1

DREAMS

WLLDLD4–1 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Medeama	5	+5	11
2	Samartex	5	+4	11
3	Port City	5	+4	10
4	Aduana Stars	5	+3	10
5	Basake Holy Stars	5	−1	9
6	Hearts of Oak	5	+4	8
7	Heart of Lions	5	+1	8
8	Swedru All Blacks	6	0	8
9	Asante Kotoko	6	−1	8
10	Ashanti Gold	5	+1	7
11	Bechem United	5	−2	7
12	Vision	5	+1	6
13	Karela	5	−1	6
14	Debibi United	5	0	4
15	Bibiani Gold Stars	5	−3	4
16	Berekum Chelsea	5	−4	4
17	Young Apostles	5	−7	3
18	Dreams	5	−4	2