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Hearts of Oak v Basake Holy Stars
Hearts of Oak
Basake Holy StarsPremier League · FRI 23 OCT · WAFA Park
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Hearts of Oak win at 61%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Hearts of Oak was 61% before kick-off and our model makes it 61% now. 0–0 · 61–27–12
- 1′KICK-OFF Hearts of Oak v Basake Holy Stars
- 5′🟨 YELLOW · 5' Hearts of Oak
- 12′🟨 YELLOW · 12' Basake Holy Stars
- 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Hearts of Oak win: 61% at kick-off, 51% now
- 32′We said Hearts of Oak at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–40–11
- 32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Hearts of Oak
- 42′We said Hearts of Oak at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–46–10
- 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Hearts of Oak win 45%)
- 45′HALF-TIME Hearts of Oak 0–0 Basake Holy Stars
- 46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Basake Holy Stars
- 46′SECOND HALF Hearts of Oak 0–0 Basake Holy Stars
- 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Hearts of Oak win: 61% at kick-off, 41% now
- 50′We said Hearts of Oak at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–51–10
- 58′We said Hearts of Oak at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–58–9
- 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Hearts of Oak win: 61% at kick-off, 31% now
- 64′We said Hearts of Oak at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–63–8
- 64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Basake Holy Stars
- 70′We said Hearts of Oak at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–70–6
- 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Hearts of Oak win: 61% at kick-off, 21% now
- 75′We said Hearts of Oak at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–76–5
- 79′We said Hearts of Oak at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–82–4
- 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Hearts of Oak win: 61% at kick-off, 11% now
- 83′A goal for Hearts of Oak on 83′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 97–3–0
- 83′We published Hearts of Oak at 61%. Our model now makes it 97%. 1–0 · 97–3–0
- 83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Hearts of Oak 1–0 Basake Holy Stars
- 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Hearts of Oak win: 61% at kick-off, 97% now
- 83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Hearts of Oak win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 86%)
- 88′M. Karikari scores for Hearts of Oak on 82′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 98–2–0
- 94′We published Hearts of Oak at 61%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–0 · 100–0–0
- FTFULL TIME Hearts of Oak 1–0 Basake Holy Stars
- FTHearts of Oak 1–0 Basake Holy Stars · Hearts of Oak win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Hearts of Oak are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Hearts of Oak 61%, draw 27%, Basake Holy Stars 12%. Over 2.5 goals 25%, both teams to score 23%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
Hearts of Oak win61%
Basake Holy Stars win12%Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:00
RoundMatchday 8
VenueWAFA Park
Match timeline
All events
Hearts of OakMIN
Basake Holy StarsEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Hearts of Oak
Basake Holy Stars
Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Ghana)
Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League (Ghana)
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Hearts of Oak a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 70%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.4.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 70% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hearts of Oak win | 61% | 70% | −9 |
| Draw | 27% | 21% | +6 |
| Basake Holy Stars win | 12% | 9% | +3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 49% | −24 |
| Both teams to score | 23% | 37% | −14 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 51% | 71% | −20 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 10% | 30% | −20 |
| Hearts of Oak or draw | 88% | 91% | −3 |
| Hearts of Oak clean sheet | 67% | – | – |
| Basake Holy Stars clean sheet | 27% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
4 meetings since 2024/25Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 13 Sept
HEARTS OF OAK
BASAKE HOLY STARS
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Medeama | 7 | +6 | 14 |
| 2 | Hearts of Oak | 7 | +6 | 14 |
| 3 | Samartex | 7 | +4 | 14 |
| 4 | Aduana Stars | 7 | +3 | 13 |
| 5 | Basake Holy Stars | 7 | −2 | 12 |
| 6 | Port City | 7 | +3 | 11 |
| 7 | Swedru All Blacks | 7 | +2 | 11 |
| 8 | Asante Kotoko | 7 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Berekum Chelsea | 7 | +1 | 10 |
| 10 | Ashanti Gold | 7 | +1 | 10 |
| 11 | Bechem United | 7 | −1 | 10 |
| 12 | Karela | 7 | −2 | 9 |
| 13 | Heart of Lions | 7 | −3 | 8 |
| 14 | Debibi United | 7 | −2 | 7 |
| 15 | Bibiani Gold Stars | 7 | −2 | 7 |
| 16 | Young Apostles | 7 | −7 | 6 |
| 17 | Vision | 7 | −2 | 6 |
| 18 | Dreams | 7 | −5 | 3 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Medeama
Samartex
Aduana Stars
Port City
Swedru All Blacks
Asante Kotoko
Berekum Chelsea
Ashanti Gold
Bechem United
Karela
Heart of Lions
Debibi United
Bibiani Gold Stars
Young Apostles
Vision
Dreams