Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › Premier League › Hearts of Oak v Basake Holy Stars

Back
Ghana flag

Hearts of Oak v Basake Holy Stars

Hearts of Oak
1–0Full time
Basake Holy Stars

Premier League · FRI 23 OCT · WAFA Park

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:31
Hearts of Oak 1–0 Basake Holy Stars HEARTS OF OAK WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Hearts of Oak win61%
The market said70%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.238
The market’s Brier score0.144

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 18 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Hearts of Oak win at 61%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Hearts of Oak was 61% before kick-off and our model makes it 61% now. 0–0 · 61–27–12
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Hearts of Oak v Basake Holy Stars
  4. 5′🟨 YELLOW · 5' Hearts of Oak
  5. 12′🟨 YELLOW · 12' Basake Holy Stars
  6. 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Hearts of Oak win: 61% at kick-off, 51% now
  7. 32′We said Hearts of Oak at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–40–11
  8. 32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Hearts of Oak
  9. 42′We said Hearts of Oak at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–46–10
  10. 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Hearts of Oak win 45%)
  11. 45′HALF-TIME Hearts of Oak 0–0 Basake Holy Stars
  12. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Basake Holy Stars
  13. 46′SECOND HALF Hearts of Oak 0–0 Basake Holy Stars
  14. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Hearts of Oak win: 61% at kick-off, 41% now
  15. 50′We said Hearts of Oak at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–51–10
  16. 58′We said Hearts of Oak at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–58–9
  17. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Hearts of Oak win: 61% at kick-off, 31% now
  18. 64′We said Hearts of Oak at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–63–8
  19. 64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Basake Holy Stars
  20. 70′We said Hearts of Oak at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–70–6
  21. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Hearts of Oak win: 61% at kick-off, 21% now
  22. 75′We said Hearts of Oak at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–76–5
  23. 79′We said Hearts of Oak at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–82–4
  24. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Hearts of Oak win: 61% at kick-off, 11% now
  25. 83′A goal for Hearts of Oak on 83′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 97–3–0
  26. 83′We published Hearts of Oak at 61%. Our model now makes it 97%. 1–0 · 97–3–0
  27. 83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Hearts of Oak 1–0 Basake Holy Stars
  28. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Hearts of Oak win: 61% at kick-off, 97% now
  29. 83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Hearts of Oak win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 86%)
  30. 88′M. Karikari scores for Hearts of Oak on 82′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 98–2–0
  31. 94′We published Hearts of Oak at 61%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–0 · 100–0–0
  32. FTFULL TIME Hearts of Oak 1–0 Basake Holy Stars
  33. FTHearts of Oak 1–0 Basake Holy Stars · Hearts of Oak win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hearts of Oak are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hearts of Oak 61%, draw 27%, Basake Holy Stars 12%. Over 2.5 goals 25%, both teams to score 23%.

The AI’s read on Hearts of Oak v Basake Holy StarsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Hearts of Oak win61%
Draw27%
Basake Holy Stars win12%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueWAFA Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hearts of Oak

Basake Holy Stars

6Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Ghana)

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League (Ghana)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Hearts of Oak7+614
5Basake Holy Stars7−212

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hearts of oak winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
61% The market70%
Us61%
Market70%

We make Hearts of Oak a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 70%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Hearts of Oak v Basake Holy Stars1.33 – 0.40
Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 13 SeptW3 D2 L1 · W3 D0 L3
Table places · points 14 v 122 v 5
The market · Hearts of Oak win70% · ours 61%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
60%65%70%75% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 17:41
Our probability · Hearts of Oak win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 70% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Hearts of Oak win61%70%−9
Draw27%21%+6
Basake Holy Stars win12%9%+3
Over 2.5 goals25%49%−24
Both teams to score23%37%−14
Over 1.5 goals51%71%−20
Over 3.5 goals10%30%−20
Hearts of Oak or draw88%91%−3
Hearts of Oak clean sheet67%––
Basake Holy Stars clean sheet27%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 24.3%
0123450 17.2 7.9 1 24.3 8.5 2 15.6 6.1 3 7.0 2.8 4 2.4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Hearts of Oak down, Basake Holy Stars across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25
Goals a meeting1.00
Over 2.51 of 4
Both scored1 of 4
Last meetingsHEA 0–0 BAS · BAS 1–2 HEA · BAS 0–0 HEA · HEA 0–1 BAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 13 Sept

HEARTS OF OAK

WDLDWW2–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–0

BASAKE HOLY STARS

LWLWLW0–1 · 1–0 · 1–4 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Medeama7+614
2Hearts of Oak7+614
3Samartex7+414
4Aduana Stars7+313
5Basake Holy Stars7−212
6Port City7+311
7Swedru All Blacks7+211
8Asante Kotoko7011
9Berekum Chelsea7+110
10Ashanti Gold7+110
11Bechem United7−110
12Karela7−29
13Heart of Lions7−38
14Debibi United7−27
15Bibiani Gold Stars7−27
16Young Apostles7−76
17Vision7−26
18Dreams7−53

The competition's standings before kick-off.