Heart of Lions v Berekum Chelsea prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42

Heart of Lions 0–2 Berekum Chelsea HEART OF LIONS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Heart of Lions win~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.092

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Heart of Lions win at 59%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Heart of Lions 59% before kick-off, 59% now. 0–0 · 59–24–17
1′KICK-OFF Heart of Lions v Berekum Chelsea
15′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Heart of Lions
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Heart of Lions win: 59% at kick-off, 49% now
36′We said Heart of Lions at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 47%. 0–0 · 47–37–16
40′Berekum Chelsea score on 40′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 16–29–54
40′We said Heart of Lions at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–29–54
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Heart of Lions 0–1 Berekum Chelsea
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Heart of Lions win: 59% at kick-off, 16% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Berekum Chelsea win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Heart of Lions win 16%)
41′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 16–29–55
41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Berekum Chelsea
45′We said Heart of Lions at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–29–57
45′HALF-TIME Heart of Lions 0–1 Berekum Chelsea
46′SECOND HALF Heart of Lions 0–1 Berekum Chelsea
57′We said Heart of Lions at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–27–64
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Heart of Lions win: 59% at kick-off, 9% now
58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Berekum Chelsea
70′We said Heart of Lions at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–22–74
70′Berekum Chelsea find the net on 70′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–4–96
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Heart of Lions 0–2 Berekum Chelsea
FTFULL TIME Heart of Lions 0–2 Berekum Chelsea
FTHeart of Lions 0–2 Berekum Chelsea · Heart of Lions win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Heart of Lions are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Heart of Lions 59%, draw 24%, Berekum Chelsea 17%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Heart of Lions v Berekum ChelseaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Heart of Lions win59%

Draw24%

Berekum Chelsea win17%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueKpandu stadium

Line-ups

Heart of Lions

Berekum Chelsea

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Heart of Lions

Berekum Chelsea

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Premier League (Ghana)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Heart of Lions	6	−1	8
13	Berekum Chelsea	6	−1	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Heart of Lions

Formation not confirmed

16 E. Wireko

20 A. Jalilu

17 F. Ali

23 Y. Salifu

18 K. Asenso

7 W. Oduro

6 I. Addo

14 J. Cobbinah

33 G. Osei

32 S. Afoakwa

11 F. Odoom

Coach · Kwaku Hayford Bashir

Substitutes

22 · F. Yamoah

5 · D. Davids Jr

15 · M. Ayidem

19 · A. Musah

24 · A. Owusu

25 · E. Bonsu

28 · J. Asuah

35 · S. Alabani

40 · K. Agbadji

Berekum Chelsea

Formation not confirmed

16 E. Ofori-Antwi

3 F. Zackaria

18 P. Attah Agyei

28 S. Kwakye

33 E. Ofusu

45 S. Say

8 A. Henneh

10 D. Awuah

23 M. Sualahudeen

20 J. Attuquaye

40 S. Abubakar

Coach · Samuel Boadu

Substitutes

12 · E. Adu

4 · K. Oxborn

13 · F. Kongoza

15 · M. Seidu

26 · A. Agyapong

9 · M. Owusu

14 · R. Osei

22 · W. Alado

38 · Y. Bayanalabe

Our number · heart of lions winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Heart of Lions a 59% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 18%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Heart of Lions v Berekum Chelsea~~1.56 – 0.68

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 8 v 7~~11 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Heart of Lions win	59%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Berekum Chelsea win	17%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	38%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Heart of Lions or draw	83%	–	–
Heart of Lions clean sheet	51%	–	–
Berekum Chelsea clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.5%

0123450 10.1 8.2 2.5 1 17.5 10.3 3.8 2 12.8 8.6 2.9 3 6.7 4.5 4 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Heart of Lions down, Berekum Chelsea across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,565 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.6% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Heart of Lions at home: 1.33 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Berekum Chelsea away: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Heart of Lions, 0.68 for Berekum Chelsea. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~BER 2–1 HEA · HEA 1–0 BER · BER 1–0 HEA · HEA 1–0 BER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 6 Sept

HEART OF LIONS

DLDWWL0–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 1–3

BEREKUM CHELSEA

LWLDLW0–4 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Medeama	6	+7	14
2	Hearts of Oak	6	+5	11
3	Samartex	6	+3	11
4	Port City	6	+3	10
5	Ashanti Gold	6	+2	10
6	Aduana Stars	6	+2	10
7	Bechem United	6	0	10
8	Karela	6	0	9
9	Basake Holy Stars	6	−3	9
10	Swedru All Blacks	6	0	8
11	Heart of Lions	6	−1	8
12	Asante Kotoko	6	−1	8
13	Berekum Chelsea	6	−1	7
14	Bibiani Gold Stars	6	−1	7
15	Young Apostles	6	−6	6
16	Vision	6	−1	6
17	Debibi United	6	−3	4
18	Dreams	6	−5	2