Bibiani Gold Stars v Basake Holy Stars prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Bibiani Gold Stars 2–0 Basake Holy Stars BIBIANI GOLD STARS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bibiani Gold Stars win~~64%

~~The market said~~77%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.194

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.086

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bibiani Gold Stars win at 64%.
1′Much as we predicted: Bibiani Gold Stars was 64% before kick-off and our model makes it 64% now. 0–0 · 64–23–13
1′KICK-OFF Bibiani Gold Stars v Basake Holy Stars
41′⚽ GOAL · 40' Bibiani Gold Stars 1–0 Basake Holy Stars
45′⚽ GOAL · 40' Bibiani Gold Stars 1–0 Basake Holy Stars · K. Opoku
45′HALF-TIME Bibiani Gold Stars 1–0 Basake Holy Stars
46′SECOND HALF Bibiani Gold Stars 1–0 Basake Holy Stars
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Basake Holy Stars
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Bibiani Gold Stars 2–0 Basake Holy Stars
FTFULL TIME Bibiani Gold Stars 2–0 Basake Holy Stars
FTBibiani Gold Stars 2–0 Basake Holy Stars · Bibiani Gold Stars win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Bibiani Gold Stars win64%

Draw22%

Basake Holy Stars win14%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

Line-ups

Bibiani Gold Stars

Basake Holy Stars

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Bibiani Gold Stars

Basake Holy Stars

8Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Basake Holy Stars	5	−1	9
15	Bibiani Gold Stars	5	−3	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Bibiani Gold Stars

Formation not confirmed

1 E. Kobi

10 M. Nkoah

23 E. Agyemang

25 C. S. Borrtey

26 B. Boakye Kyereh

44 K. Oppong

19 K. R. Amon

34 M. Abina

12 E. Agyei

17 J. Arthur

33 K. Opoku

Coach · Frimpong Manso

Substitutes

76 · J. Annobil Joy

5 · G. Anaba

18 · E. Kontor

24 · P. Ofori

4 · P. Dogbe

8 · I. Adjetey

20 · G. Arthur

21 · E. Adomako

30 · B. Kesse

Basake Holy Stars

Formation not confirmed

12 R. Rooney

37 E. Kwame

55 F. Asante

2 A. Kwoffie

4 M. Author

5 E. Boadi

24 J. Hudson

36 L. Gadeseh

40 G. K. Nana

9 P. Ocran

25 K. Otoo

Coach · –

Substitutes

90 · F. Yeboah

14 · E. Brace

31 · A. Dagbatey Basit

45 · A. Quansah

6 · F. Oteng

28 · E. Minimsaah

91 · G. Dornyo

3 · P. Opoku

18 · O. K. Dwokoler

Our number · bibiani gold stars winPublished 11 Oct 15:49

64% The market77%

Us64%

~~Market~~77%

We make Bibiani Gold Stars a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 77%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · bibiani gold stars win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 77% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bibiani Gold Stars win	64%	77%	−12
Draw	22%	16%	+5
Basake Holy Stars win	14%	7%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	42%	55%	−12
Both teams to score	38%	37%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	68%	76%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	22%	34%	−12
Bibiani Gold Stars or draw	86%	93%	−7
Bibiani Gold Stars clean sheet	53%	–	–
Basake Holy Stars clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.8%

0123450 8.8 6.8 1 16.8 9.5 3.3 2 13.8 8.8 2.8 3 8.0 5.1 4 3.5 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bibiani Gold Stars down, Basake Holy Stars across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,557 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.5% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 1.75 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bibiani Gold Stars at home: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Basake Holy Stars away: 0.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for Bibiani Gold Stars, 0.64 for Basake Holy Stars. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.75

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~0 of 4

~~Last meetings~~BIB 3–0 BAS · BAS 2–0 BIB · BAS 0–1 BIB · BIB 1–0 BAS

Form · last six in Premier League

BIBIANI GOLD STARS

WLLWLD8–3 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 0–0

BASAKE HOLY STARS

LWLWLW1–4 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–4 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Medeama	5	+5	11
2	Samartex	5	+4	11
3	Port City	5	+4	10
4	Aduana Stars	5	+3	10
5	Basake Holy Stars	5	−1	9
6	Hearts of Oak	5	+4	8
7	Heart of Lions	5	+1	8
8	Swedru All Blacks	6	0	8
9	Asante Kotoko	6	−1	8
10	Ashanti Gold	5	+1	7
11	Bechem United	5	−2	7
12	Vision	5	+1	6
13	Karela	5	−1	6
14	Debibi United	5	0	4
15	Bibiani Gold Stars	5	−3	4
16	Berekum Chelsea	5	−4	4
17	Young Apostles	5	−7	3
18	Dreams	5	−4	2