Berekum Chelsea v Samartex prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Berekum ChelseaDrawSamartex

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Berekum Chelsea 50%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Berekum Chelsea are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Berekum Chelsea 50%, draw 28%, Samartex 22%. Over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 33%.

The AI’s read on Berekum Chelsea v SamartexBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Berekum Chelsea win50%

Draw28%

Samartex win22%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueGolden City Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Berekum Chelsea

Samartex

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Ghana)

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League (Ghana)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Samartex	7	+4	14
9	Berekum Chelsea	7	+1	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · berekum chelsea winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Berekum Chelsea a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 19%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Berekum Chelsea v Samartex~~1.22 – 0.68

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 13 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 14~~9 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Berekum Chelsea win	50%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Samartex win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	30%	–	–
Both teams to score	33%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	55%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	13%	–	–
Berekum Chelsea or draw	78%	–	–
Berekum Chelsea clean sheet	51%	–	–
Samartex clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 19.2%

0123450 14.1 11.4 3.5 1 19.2 11.2 4.2 2 11.0 7.4 2.5 3 4.5 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Berekum Chelsea down, Samartex across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,575 Premier League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.1% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 1.38 goals a meeting; 1 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Berekum Chelsea at home: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Samartex away: 0.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Berekum Chelsea, 0.68 for Samartex. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~1.38

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 8

~~Both scored~~2 of 8

~~Last meetings~~SAM 1–0 BER · BER 0–0 SAM · BER 0–0 SAM · SAM 1–0 BER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 13 Sept

BEREKUM CHELSEA

WLDLWW3–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 2–0

SAMARTEX

WDDWLW1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hearts of Oak	8	+7	17
2	Medeama	7	+6	14
3	Samartex	7	+4	14
4	Aduana Stars	7	+3	13
5	Basake Holy Stars	8	−3	12
6	Port City	7	+3	11
7	Swedru All Blacks	7	+2	11
8	Asante Kotoko	7	0	11
9	Berekum Chelsea	7	+1	10
10	Ashanti Gold	7	+1	10
11	Bechem United	7	−1	10
12	Karela	7	−2	9
13	Heart of Lions	7	−3	8
14	Debibi United	7	−2	7
15	Bibiani Gold Stars	7	−2	7
16	Young Apostles	7	−7	6
17	Vision	7	−2	6
18	Dreams	7	−5	3