Basake Holy Stars v Bechem United prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Basake Holy Stars 1–0 Bechem United BASAKE HOLY STARS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Basake Holy Stars win~~49%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.395

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.299

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 3 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Basake Holy Stars win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Basake Holy Stars was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–27–24
1′KICK-OFF Basake Holy Stars v Bechem United
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Basake Holy Stars win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
FTFULL TIME Basake Holy Stars 1–0 Bechem United
FTBasake Holy Stars 1–0 Bechem United · Basake Holy Stars win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Basake Holy Stars are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Basake Holy Stars 49%, draw 27%, Bechem United 24%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Basake Holy Stars v Bechem UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Basake Holy Stars win49%

Draw27%

Bechem United win24%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueCrosby Awuah Memorial Stadium

Line-ups

Basake Holy Stars

Bechem United

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Basake Holy Stars

Bechem United

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Premier League (Ghana)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Bechem United	6	0	10
10	Basake Holy Stars	6	−3	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Basake Holy Stars

Formation not confirmed

12 K. Baffoe

6 F. Oteng

2 A. Kwoffie

17 C. Marfo

18 O. K. Dwokoler

24 J. Hudson

31 A. Dagbatey Basit

36 L. Gadeseh

37 E. Kwame

68 B. Teye

85 F. Gyetuah

Coach · –

Substitutes

5 · E. Boadi

7 · S. Timtooni

14 · E. Brace

25 · K. Otoo

32 · R. Frimpong

55 · F. Asante

88 · I. Fuseini

90 · F. Yeboah

91 · G. Dornyo

Bechem United

Formation not confirmed

16 D. Votere

17 I. Nyarko

3 F. Acquah

5 Y. Acheampong

15 A. AlHassan

29 K. Appiah

32 D. Afriyie

35 B. M. Abdulai

40 E. Kobi

50 R. Dwamena

72 A. Randolf

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · E. Anning

7 · Y. Annor

8 · F. Twene

10 · A. Okrah

2 · S. Atugba

23 · F. Amankwah

26 · D. Modzaka

6 · London

51 · K. Tompuo

Our number · basake holy stars winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

49% The market56%

Us49%

~~Market~~56%

We make Basake Holy Stars a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Basake Holy Stars v Bechem United~~1.28 – 0.80

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 10~~10 v 8

~~The market · Basake Holy Stars win~~56% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Basake Holy Stars win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Basake Holy Stars win	49%	56%	−7
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Bechem United win	24%	16%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	34%	39%	−5
Both teams to score	38%	41%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	60%	64%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	16%	21%	−5
Basake Holy Stars or draw	76%	84%	−8
Basake Holy Stars clean sheet	45%	–	–
Bechem United clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.1%

0123450 11.8 11.1 4.0 1 17.1 11.5 5.0 2 10.2 8.0 3.2 3 4.4 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Basake Holy Stars down, Bechem United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,567 Premier League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.1% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Basake Holy Stars at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Bechem United away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Basake Holy Stars, 0.80 for Bechem United. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~BAS 2–1 BEC · BEC 0–0 BAS · BEC 0–0 BAS · BAS 3–0 BEC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 6 Sept

BASAKE HOLY STARS

WLWLWL1–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–4 · 1–0 · 0–2

BECHEM UNITED

WLDWLW1–0 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Medeama	6	+7	14
2	Hearts of Oak	7	+6	14
3	Samartex	6	+3	11
4	Port City	6	+3	10
5	Ashanti Gold	6	+2	10
6	Aduana Stars	6	+2	10
7	Berekum Chelsea	7	+1	10
8	Bechem United	6	0	10
9	Karela	6	0	9
10	Basake Holy Stars	6	−3	9
11	Swedru All Blacks	6	0	8
12	Asante Kotoko	6	−1	8
13	Heart of Lions	7	−3	8
14	Bibiani Gold Stars	6	−1	7
15	Young Apostles	6	−6	6
16	Vision	7	−2	6
17	Debibi United	6	−3	4
18	Dreams	6	−5	2