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Asante Kotoko v Young Apostles

Asante Kotoko
2–1Full time
Young Apostles

Premier League · SUN 18 OCT · Baba Yara Stadium

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32
Asante Kotoko 2–1 Young Apostles ASANTE KOTOKO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Asante Kotoko win64%
The market said70%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.202
The market’s Brier score0.144

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 17 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Asante Kotoko win at 64%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Asante Kotoko 64% before kick-off, 63% now. 0–0 · 63–23–14
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Asante Kotoko v Young Apostles
  4. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Asante Kotoko win: 64% at kick-off, 54% now
  5. 33′We said Asante Kotoko at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 52%. 0–0 · 52–34–13
  6. 34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Young Apostles
  7. 39′We said Asante Kotoko at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–37–13
  8. 45′HALF-TIME Asante Kotoko 0–0 Young Apostles
  9. 46′SECOND HALF Asante Kotoko 0–0 Young Apostles
  10. 49′We said Asante Kotoko at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–44–12
  11. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+4' Asante Kotoko win: 64% at kick-off, 44% now
  12. 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Asante Kotoko win 41%)
  13. 56′We said Asante Kotoko at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–49–11
  14. 61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Young Apostles
  15. 63′We said Asante Kotoko at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–56–10
  16. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Asante Kotoko win: 64% at kick-off, 34% now
  17. 68′We said Asante Kotoko at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–61–9
  18. 71′Asante Kotoko find the net on 70′. 1–0. 1–0 · 92–8–1
  19. 71′We said Asante Kotoko at 64% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 1–0 · 92–8–1
  20. 71′⚽ GOAL · 70' Asante Kotoko 1–0 Young Apostles
  21. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Asante Kotoko win: 64% at kick-off, 92% now
  22. 71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Asante Kotoko win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 8%)
  23. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Asante Kotoko win: 64% at kick-off, 94% now
  24. 80′We said Asante Kotoko at 64% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  25. 82′A goal for Asante Kotoko on 82′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  26. 82′We said Asante Kotoko at 64% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  27. 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Asante Kotoko 2–0 Young Apostles
  28. 83′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  29. 93′Young Apostles score on 90′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 99–1–0
  30. 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Asante Kotoko 2–1 Young Apostles
  31. 94′3 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 99–1–0
  32. 94′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+4' Young Apostles
  33. FTFULL TIME Asante Kotoko 2–1 Young Apostles
  34. FTAsante Kotoko 2–1 Young Apostles · Asante Kotoko win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Asante Kotoko are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Asante Kotoko 64%, draw 22%, Young Apostles 14%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 34%.

The AI’s read on Asante Kotoko v Young ApostlesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Asante Kotoko win64%
Draw22%
Young Apostles win14%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueBaba Yara Stadium

Line-ups

Asante Kotoko

Young Apostles

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Asante Kotoko

Young Apostles

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Premier League (Ghana)

Last match: 11 Oct · Premier League (Ghana)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
12Asante Kotoko6−18
15Young Apostles6−66

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Asante Kotoko

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Aziz

5 M. Hamzata

21 A. Abu

26 J. Amoah

17 P. Aseidu

8 L. H. Adabo

35 J. K. Manu L.

14 O. Agyemang

19 I. Adam

11 E. Gbetta

18 E. Mamah

Coach · Karim Zito Abdul

Substitutes

4 · K. Bini

2 · E. Sanja

20 · S. Kwadwo

40 · E. Antwi

39 · D. A. Duah

23 · S. Asaah

28 · W. Fuseini

10 · H. Gyau

Young Apostles

Formation not confirmed

16 O. Wahabu

25 M. Amegbe

4 I. Nyaabila

24 M. Illiasu

44 E. Owusu

8 R. Abubakar

6 S. Adamu

5 A. G. Muftaw

11 H. Issah

21 S. Prempeh

40 R. Opoku

Coach · –

Substitutes

23 · S. Issah

12 · M. Musah

33 · F. Agyarko

20 · J. Afram

28 · A. Seidu

10 · I. Huziaf

60 · E. Abuu

19 · A. F. Salifu

13 · B. Twum

Our number · asante kotoko winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
64% The market70%
Us64%
Market70%

We make Asante Kotoko a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 70%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Asante Kotoko v Young Apostles1.63 – 0.58
Form · Premier League this season · since 5 SeptW2 D2 L2 · W2 D0 L4
Table places · points 8 v 612 v 15
The market · Asante Kotoko win70% · ours 64%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
60%65%70%75% 12 OCT 04:0218 OCT 15:40
Our probability · Asante Kotoko win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 70% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Asante Kotoko win64%70%−6
Draw22%23%−1
Young Apostles win14%7%+7
Over 2.5 goals38%40%−2
Both teams to score34%29%+5
Over 1.5 goals64%65%−1
Over 3.5 goals19%21%−2
Asante Kotoko or draw86%93%−7
Asante Kotoko clean sheet56%––
Young Apostles clean sheet20%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 18.7%
0123450 10.3 7.3 1 18.7 9.4 3.0 2 14.4 8.3 2.4 3 7.9 4.5 4 3.3 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Asante Kotoko down, Young Apostles across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25
Goals a meeting1.75
Over 2.51 of 4
Both scored2 of 4
Last meetingsYOU 0–2 ASA · ASA 2–1 YOU · YOU 0–0 ASA · ASA 1–1 YOU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 5 Sept

ASANTE KOTOKO

DWDLWL2–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 0–1

YOUNG APOSTLES

LWLLLW0–3 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Medeama6+714
2Hearts of Oak7+614
3Samartex6+311
4Port City6+310
5Ashanti Gold6+210
6Aduana Stars6+210
7Berekum Chelsea7+110
8Bechem United6010
9Karela609
10Basake Holy Stars6−39
11Swedru All Blacks608
12Asante Kotoko6−18
13Heart of Lions7−38
14Bibiani Gold Stars6−17
15Young Apostles6−66
16Vision7−26
17Debibi United6−34
18Dreams6−52

The competition's standings before kick-off.