Aduana Stars v Ashanti Gold prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Aduana Stars 1–0 Ashanti Gold ADUANA STARS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Aduana Stars win~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.289

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Aduana Stars win at 56%.
1′Much as we predicted: Aduana Stars was 56% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 56–25–19
1′KICK-OFF Aduana Stars v Ashanti Gold
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Aduana Stars win: 56% at kick-off, 46% now
38′We said Aduana Stars at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–39–17
39′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Ashanti Gold
41′Aduana Stars score on 41′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 83–14–3
41′We published Aduana Stars at 56%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–0 · 83–14–3
41′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 83–14–3
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Aduana Stars 1–0 Ashanti Gold
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Aduana Stars win: 56% at kick-off, 83% now
45′HALF-TIME Aduana Stars 1–0 Ashanti Gold
46′40′: A. Adams on the scoresheet for Aduana Stars, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 84–14–2
46′SECOND HALF Aduana Stars 1–0 Ashanti Gold
50′We published Aduana Stars at 56%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Aduana Stars win: 56% at kick-off, 86% now
61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Ashanti Gold
71′We published Aduana Stars at 56%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Aduana Stars
83′We published Aduana Stars at 56%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Ashanti Gold
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Aduana Stars win: 56% at kick-off, 96% now
87′A red card for Ashanti Gold on 87′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 97–3–0
87′🟥 RED CARD · 87' Ashanti Gold
FTFULL TIME Aduana Stars 1–0 Ashanti Gold
FTAduana Stars 1–0 Ashanti Gold · Aduana Stars win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Aduana Stars are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Aduana Stars 56%, draw 25%, Ashanti Gold 19%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Aduana Stars v Ashanti GoldBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Aduana Stars win56%

Draw25%

Ashanti Gold win19%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueAgyeman Badu Stadium

Line-ups

Aduana Stars

Ashanti Gold

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Aduana Stars

Ashanti Gold

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Premier League (Ghana)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Ashanti Gold	6	+2	10
6	Aduana Stars	6	+2	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Aduana Stars

Formation not confirmed

41 O. Prince

20 A. Boakye

25 M. Abdul Latif

24 S. Kuffour

17 A. Adams

4 R. Agyemang

8 S. Saana

30 S. Tenedu

11 E. Abban

7 H. Anponsa

10 S. Amankona

Coach · Aristica Cioaba

Substitutes

2 · P. Otubua

5 · M. Arthur

6 · S. Mohammed

9 · E. Marfo

14 · C. Gyamfi

15 · S. Badu

16 · G. Obeng Sekyere

18 · P. Mensah

23 · F. Zackaria

Ashanti Gold

Formation not confirmed

33 F. Seidu

4 K. Twumasi

51 A. Afari

8 F. Ameyaw

11 E. Amakye

23 S. Fosu

27 J. Boazee

31 M. Owusu

5 A. Osman

16 Z. Musah

18 R. Kwame Junior Ankamah

Coach · –

Our number · aduana stars winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

56% The market–

Us56%

We make Aduana Stars a 56% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 18%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Aduana Stars v Ashanti Gold~~1.46 – 0.69

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 10~~6 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aduana Stars win	56%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Ashanti Gold win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	36%	–	–
Both teams to score	37%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	62%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Aduana Stars or draw	81%	–	–
Aduana Stars clean sheet	50%	–	–
Ashanti Gold clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.9%

0123450 11.1 9.2 2.8 1 17.9 10.5 4.0 2 12.2 8.2 2.9 3 6.0 4.1 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aduana Stars down, Ashanti Gold across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,567 Premier League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.1% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 0.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aduana Stars at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Ashanti Gold away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for Aduana Stars, 0.69 for Ashanti Gold. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~0.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ADU 0–0 ASH · ASH 0–1 ADU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 6 Sept

ADUANA STARS

DLWWWL0–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 0–1

ASHANTI GOLD

DWLWLW1–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Medeama	6	+7	14
2	Hearts of Oak	7	+6	14
3	Samartex	6	+3	11
4	Port City	6	+3	10
5	Ashanti Gold	6	+2	10
6	Aduana Stars	6	+2	10
7	Berekum Chelsea	7	+1	10
8	Bechem United	6	0	10
9	Karela	6	0	9
10	Basake Holy Stars	6	−3	9
11	Swedru All Blacks	6	0	8
12	Asante Kotoko	6	−1	8
13	Heart of Lions	7	−3	8
14	Bibiani Gold Stars	6	−1	7
15	Young Apostles	6	−6	6
16	Vision	7	−2	6
17	Debibi United	6	−3	4
18	Dreams	6	−5	2