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Unterhaching U19 v SGV Freiberg Fussball U19

Unterhaching U19

1–1Full time

SGV Freiberg Fussball U19

U19 Bundesliga · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Unterhaching U19 1–1 SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 UNTERHACHING U19 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Unterhaching U19 win~~42%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.874

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.930

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Match events aren’t available for this match.

Pre-match prediction

Unterhaching U19 win42%

Draw24%

SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 win34%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · unterhaching u19 winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

42% The market42%

Us42%

~~Market~~42%

We make Unterhaching U19 a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.5.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Unterhaching U19 win	42%	42%	0
Draw	24%	21%	+2
SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 win	34%	36%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	62%	73%	−11
Both teams to score	63%	73%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	53%	−13
Unterhaching U19 or draw	66%	64%	+3
Unterhaching U19 clean sheet	23%	–	–
SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 4.7 5.7 4.6 2.3 1 6.6 10.5 7.6 3.9 2 5.9 8.5 6.4 3.3 3 3.4 4.9 3.7 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Unterhaching U19 down, SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,579 U19 Bundesliga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

U19 Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 75.4% of games this season, across 179 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Unterhaching U19 at home: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 away: 1.50 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for Unterhaching U19, 1.51 for SGV Freiberg Fussball U19. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in U19 Bundesliga

UNTERHACHING U19

LLDLLW1–3 · 0–4 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 3–1

SGV FREIBERG FUSSBALL U19

WLLWLL3–1 · 0–4 · 2–5 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Union Berlin U19	6	+11	16
2	Eintracht Frankf U19	6	+16	15
3	Bayer Leverkusen U19	5	+14	15
4	RB Leipzig U19	6	+12	15
5	Hannover 96 U19	6	+9	15
6	Borussia Dortmund U19	6	+9	14
7	Köln U19	5	+17	13
8	Hoffenheim U19	6	+16	13
9	Viktoria Köln U19	6	+15	13
10	Heidenheim U19	6	+12	13
11	Stuttgart U19	6	+7	13
12	Werder Bremen U19	6	+7	13
13	Arminia Bielefeld U19	6	+9	12
14	Bayern München U19	5	+7	12
15	Hamburger SV U19	5	+7	12
16	Freiburg U19	6	+4	12
17	Hallescher FC U19	6	+3	12
18	MSV Duisburg U19	5	+8	11
19	Borussia M'bach U19	6	+3	10
20	St. Pauli U19	5	+2	10
21	Magdeburg U19	5	+2	10
22	Bochum U19	5	+8	9
23	Mainz 05 U19	5	+7	9
24	Energie Cottbus U19	6	+6	9
25	Nürnberg U19	5	+4	9
26	Preußen Münster U19	4	+4	9
27	Wolfsburg U19	5	+3	9
28	Ingolstadt U19	5	+2	9
29	Dynamo Dresden U19	7	0	9
30	Eintracht Braunsch U19	6	−10	9
31	Kaiserslautern U19	5	+2	8
32	Karlsruher SC U19	6	−6	8
33	1860 München U19	5	+1	7
34	Augsburg U19	6	−1	7
35	Darmstadt 98 U19	5	−2	7
36	Carl Zeiss Jena U19	6	−3	7
37	Sandhausen U19	6	−6	7
38	Hertha BSC U19	5	+2	6
39	Schalke 04 U19	5	+1	6
40	Meppen U19	5	−1	6
41	Fortuna Düsseldorf U19	5	−2	6
42	Babelsberg U19	6	−3	6
43	BAK 07 U19	6	−4	6
44	Fortuna Köln U19	7	−4	6
45	Wehen Wiesbaden U19	5	−10	6
46	Erzgebirge Aue U19	7	−14	6
47	Osnabrück U19	5	+1	5
48	Rot-Weiss Essen U19	5	−6	5
49	Stuttgarter K'rs U19	6	−12	5
50	Jahn Regensburg U19	5	−2	4
51	Unterhaching U19	5	−4	4
52	Alemannia Aachen U19	5	−5	4
53	Elversberg U19	5	−7	4
54	Greuther Fürth U19	5	−7	4
55	Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19	6	−11	4
56	Chemnitzer FC U19	5	−6	3
57	Paderborn U19	5	−6	3
58	SGV Freiberg Fussball U19	5	−11	3
59	Hansa Rostock U19	6	−7	2
60	FSV Frankfurt U19	6	−10	2
61	Holstein Kiel U19	5	−7	1
62	Ulm U19	6	−7	1
63	RW Oberhausen U19	5	−11	0
64	Havelse U19	5	−18	0
65	Saarbrücken U19	6	−28	0