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Ulm U19 v Hoffenheim U19

Ulm U19

1–1Full time

Hoffenheim U19

U19 Bundesliga · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Ulm U19 1–1 Hoffenheim U19 HOFFENHEIM U19 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–3 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hoffenheim U19 win~~71%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.267

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hoffenheim U19 are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ulm U19 14%, draw 14%, Hoffenheim U19 71%. Over 2.5 goals 85%, both teams to score 74%.

The AI’s read on Ulm U19 v Hoffenheim U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ulm U19 win14%

Draw14%

Hoffenheim U19 win71%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundPreliminary

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ulm U19

Hoffenheim U19

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · U19 Bundesliga

Last match: 11 Oct · U19 Bundesliga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Hoffenheim U19	7	+14	13
54	Ulm U19	7	−2	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hoffenheim u19 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:09 · locked at kick-off

71% The market–

Us71%

We make Hoffenheim U19 a 71% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–3.3, and 1–3 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ulm U19 v Hoffenheim U19~~1.49 – 3.29

~~Form · last six in U19 Bundesliga this season · since 15 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 4 v 13~~54 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hoffenheim U19 win

Published at 73%, 71% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ulm U19 win	14%	–	–
Draw	14%	–	–
Hoffenheim U19 win	71%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	85%	–	–
Both teams to score	74%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	95%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	70%	–	–
Ulm U19 or draw	29%	–	–
Ulm U19 clean sheet	4%	–	–
Hoffenheim U19 clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–3 at 7.1%

0123450 2.7 4.6 4.9 4.0 2.71 4.4 6.7 7.1 5.8 3.92 3.2 5.0 5.3 4.3 2.83 2.5 2.7 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ulm U19 down, Hoffenheim U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (87.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,607 U19 Bundesliga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: U19 Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 75.8% of games this season, across 207 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 5.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ulm U19 at home: 2.00 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Hoffenheim U19 away: 3.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Ulm U19, 3.29 for Hoffenheim U19. Most likely score 1–3.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~5.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~HOF 2–1 ULM · HOF 5–1 ULM · HOF 5–2 ULM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in U19 Bundesliga this season · since 15 Aug

ULM U19

LLLLDW1–3 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 5–0

HOFFENHEIM U19

WLWWDL9–0 · 2–4 · 7–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Union Berlin U19	7	+14	19
2	Bayer Leverkusen U19	6	+16	18
3	RB Leipzig U19	7	+13	18
4	Köln U19	6	+18	16
5	Heidenheim U19	7	+13	16
6	Eintracht Frankf U19	6	+16	15
7	Bayern München U19	6	+12	15
8	Arminia Bielefeld U19	7	+11	15
9	Hannover 96 U19	6	+9	15
10	Freiburg U19	7	+6	15
11	Borussia Dortmund U19	6	+9	14
12	MSV Duisburg U19	6	+9	14
13	Hoffenheim U19	7	+14	13
14	Viktoria Köln U19	7	+13	13
15	Stuttgart U19	6	+7	13
16	Werder Bremen U19	6	+7	13
17	Hallescher FC U19	7	+3	13
18	Magdeburg U19	6	+3	13
19	Bochum U19	6	+10	12
20	Wolfsburg U19	6	+10	12
21	Mainz 05 U19	6	+8	12
22	Energie Cottbus U19	7	+7	12
23	Preußen Münster U19	5	+7	12
24	Hamburger SV U19	6	+6	12
25	Karlsruher SC U19	7	−5	11
26	Borussia M'bach U19	6	+3	10
27	1860 München U19	6	+3	10
28	St. Pauli U19	6	0	10
29	Carl Zeiss Jena U19	7	−2	10
30	Eintracht Braunsch U19	7	−10	10
31	Nürnberg U19	6	+3	9
32	Schalke 04 U19	6	+2	9
33	Ingolstadt U19	6	0	9
34	Dynamo Dresden U19	8	−2	9
35	BAK 07 U19	7	−3	9
36	Kaiserslautern U19	6	+1	8
37	Rot-Weiss Essen U19	6	−1	8
38	Augsburg U19	7	−2	7
39	Darmstadt 98 U19	6	−3	7
40	Greuther Fürth U19	6	−5	7
41	Elversberg U19	6	−5	7
42	Sandhausen U19	7	−11	7
43	Hertha BSC U19	6	+1	6
44	Fortuna Düsseldorf U19	6	−3	6
45	Babelsberg U19	7	−4	6
46	Fortuna Köln U19	7	−4	6
47	Meppen U19	6	−4	6
48	Wehen Wiesbaden U19	6	−11	6
49	Erzgebirge Aue U19	7	−14	6
50	Osnabrück U19	6	−4	5
51	Unterhaching U19	6	−4	5
52	FSV Frankfurt U19	7	−9	5
53	Stuttgarter K'rs U19	7	−13	5
54	Ulm U19	7	−2	4
55	Holstein Kiel U19	6	−5	4
56	Alemannia Aachen U19	6	−7	4
57	Jahn Regensburg U19	6	−7	4
58	Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19	6	−11	4
59	SGV Freiberg Fussball U19	6	−11	4
60	Paderborn U19	6	−8	3
61	Chemnitzer FC U19	6	−9	3
62	Hansa Rostock U19	7	−8	2
63	RW Oberhausen U19	6	−12	0
64	Havelse U19	6	−25	0
65	Saarbrücken U19	7	−30	0