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Köln U19 v Mainz 05 U19

Köln U19

3–1Full time

Mainz 05 U19

U19 Bundesliga · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 12:32

Köln U19 3–1 Mainz 05 U19 KÖLN U19 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Köln U19 win~~50%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.372

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.309

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Köln U19 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Köln U19 50%, draw 23%, Mainz 05 U19 26%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Köln U19 v Mainz 05 U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Köln U19 win50%

Draw23%

Mainz 05 U19 win26%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 10:00

RoundPreliminary

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Köln U19

Mainz 05 U19

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · U19 Bundesliga

Last match: 11 Oct · U19 Bundesliga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Köln U19	6	+18	16
23	Mainz 05 U19	6	+8	12

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · köln u19 winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

50% The market55%

Us50%

~~Market~~55%

We make Köln U19 a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Köln U19 v Mainz 05 U19~~1.85 – 1.28

~~Form · U19 Bundesliga this season · since 9 Aug~~W5 D1 L0 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 16 v 12~~7 v 23

~~The market · Köln U19 win~~55% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Köln U19 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Köln U19 win	50%	55%	−5
Draw	23%	20%	+3
Mainz 05 U19 win	26%	25%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	60%	71%	−11
Both teams to score	60%	69%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	82%	86%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	38%	51%	−13
Köln U19 or draw	74%	75%	−1
Köln U19 clean sheet	28%	–	–
Mainz 05 U19 clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 5.1 5.4 3.6 1 7.9 10.6 6.5 2.8 2 7.5 9.3 5.9 2.6 3 4.6 5.7 3.7 4 2.2 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Köln U19 down, Mainz 05 U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,624 U19 Bundesliga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: U19 Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 75.9% of games this season, across 224 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Köln U19 at home: 3.33 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Mainz 05 U19 away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.85 goals for Köln U19, 1.28 for Mainz 05 U19. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~MAI 1–1 KOL · MAI 1–2 KOL · KOL 2–2 MAI · KOL 0–0 MAI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · U19 Bundesliga this season · since 9 Aug

KÖLN U19

DWWWWW1–1 · 7–0 · 5–1 · 3–0 · 4–1 · 1–0

MAINZ 05 U19

DDWDWW1–1 · 0–0 · 5–1 · 1–1 · 5–2 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	RB Leipzig U19	8	+17	21
2	Union Berlin U19	7	+14	19
3	Bayer Leverkusen U19	6	+16	18
4	Freiburg U19	8	+8	18
5	Heidenheim U19	8	+13	17
6	Borussia Dortmund U19	7	+13	17
7	Köln U19	6	+18	16
8	Eintracht Frankf U19	7	+16	16
9	Werder Bremen U19	7	+9	16
10	Wolfsburg U19	7	+17	15
11	Bayern München U19	7	+11	15
12	Arminia Bielefeld U19	7	+11	15
13	Preußen Münster U19	6	+10	15
14	Hannover 96 U19	6	+9	15
15	Hoffenheim U19	8	+14	14
16	MSV Duisburg U19	6	+9	14
17	Stuttgart U19	7	+7	14
18	Viktoria Köln U19	7	+13	13
19	Borussia M'bach U19	7	+5	13
20	Hallescher FC U19	7	+3	13
21	Magdeburg U19	6	+3	13
22	Bochum U19	6	+10	12
23	Mainz 05 U19	6	+8	12
24	Energie Cottbus U19	7	+7	12
25	Hamburger SV U19	6	+6	12
26	Karlsruher SC U19	8	−5	12
27	1860 München U19	7	+3	11
28	Nürnberg U19	7	+3	10
29	St. Pauli U19	6	0	10
30	Darmstadt 98 U19	7	−1	10
31	Carl Zeiss Jena U19	7	−2	10
32	Eintracht Braunsch U19	8	−12	10
33	Hertha BSC U19	7	+3	9
34	Schalke 04 U19	6	+2	9
35	Dynamo Dresden U19	8	−2	9
36	Ingolstadt U19	7	−2	9
37	BAK 07 U19	8	−6	9
38	Kaiserslautern U19	6	+1	8
39	Rot-Weiss Essen U19	6	−1	8
40	Unterhaching U19	7	−3	8
41	Sandhausen U19	8	−11	8
42	Augsburg U19	8	−4	7
43	Jahn Regensburg U19	7	−5	7
44	Greuther Fürth U19	6	−5	7
45	Elversberg U19	6	−5	7
46	Fortuna Düsseldorf U19	6	−3	6
47	Babelsberg U19	7	−4	6
48	Fortuna Köln U19	7	−4	6
49	Meppen U19	7	−11	6
50	Stuttgarter K'rs U19	8	−13	6
51	Wehen Wiesbaden U19	7	−13	6
52	Erzgebirge Aue U19	7	−14	6
53	Ulm U19	8	−2	5
54	Osnabrück U19	6	−4	5
55	Hansa Rostock U19	8	−5	5
56	FSV Frankfurt U19	7	−9	5
57	Holstein Kiel U19	7	−7	4
58	Alemannia Aachen U19	6	−7	4
59	SGV Freiberg Fussball U19	6	−11	4
60	Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19	7	−15	4
61	Chemnitzer FC U19	6	−9	3
62	Paderborn U19	7	−11	3
63	RW Oberhausen U19	7	−16	0
64	Havelse U19	6	−25	0
65	Saarbrücken U19	8	−32	0