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Hamburger SV U19 v BAK 07 U19

Hamburger SV U19

2–3Full time

BAK 07 U19

U19 Bundesliga · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:46

Hamburger SV U19 2–3 BAK 07 U19 HAMBURGER SV U19 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hamburger SV U19 win~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.168

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Hamburger SV U19 win66%

Draw18%

BAK 07 U19 win16%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Hamburger SV U19

BAK 07 U19

29Days since last match8

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
19	Hamburger SV U19	5	+7	12
44	BAK 07 U19	6	−4	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hamburger sv u19 winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

66% The market–

Us66%

We make Hamburger SV U19 a 66% chance to win. The model expects 2.6–1.2, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hamburger SV U19 win	66%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
BAK 07 U19 win	16%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	73%	–	–
Both teams to score	65%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	53%	–	–
Hamburger SV U19 or draw	84%	–	–
Hamburger SV U19 clean sheet	30%	–	–
BAK 07 U19 clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.8%

0123450 2.6 2.5 1 5.5 7.2 4.3 2 7.3 8.8 5.4 2.3 3 6.3 7.5 4.6 4 4.1 4.9 3.0 5 2.2 2.6

under 2% 5% 12%+Hamburger SV U19 down, BAK 07 U19 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,595 U19 Bundesliga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

U19 Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 75.4% of games this season, across 195 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 5.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hamburger SV U19 at home: 1.50 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). BAK 07 U19 away: 0.67 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.61 goals for Hamburger SV U19, 1.23 for BAK 07 U19. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~5.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~BAK 1–4 HAM · HAM 3–2 BAK · HAM 4–2 BAK

Form · last six in U19 Bundesliga

HAMBURGER SV U19

LLWWWW1–3 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 5–3 · 3–0

BAK 07 U19

WLLLWL4–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–4 · 3–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bayer Leverkusen U19	6	+16	18
2	RB Leipzig U19	7	+13	18
3	Köln U19	6	+18	16
4	Heidenheim U19	7	+13	16
5	Union Berlin U19	6	+11	16
6	Eintracht Frankf U19	6	+16	15
7	Bayern München U19	6	+12	15
8	Arminia Bielefeld U19	7	+11	15
9	Hannover 96 U19	6	+9	15
10	Borussia Dortmund U19	6	+9	14
11	Hoffenheim U19	6	+16	13
12	Viktoria Köln U19	6	+15	13
13	Stuttgart U19	6	+7	13
14	Werder Bremen U19	6	+7	13
15	Hallescher FC U19	7	+3	13
16	Magdeburg U19	6	+3	13
17	Wolfsburg U19	6	+10	12
18	Energie Cottbus U19	7	+7	12
19	Hamburger SV U19	5	+7	12
20	Freiburg U19	6	+4	12
21	MSV Duisburg U19	5	+8	11
22	Karlsruher SC U19	7	−5	11
23	Borussia M'bach U19	6	+3	10
24	1860 München U19	6	+3	10
25	St. Pauli U19	6	0	10
26	Eintracht Braunsch U19	7	−10	10
27	Bochum U19	5	+8	9
28	Mainz 05 U19	5	+7	9
29	Preußen Münster U19	4	+4	9
30	Nürnberg U19	6	+3	9
31	Dynamo Dresden U19	7	0	9
32	Ingolstadt U19	6	0	9
33	Kaiserslautern U19	6	+1	8
34	Darmstadt 98 U19	5	−2	7
35	Augsburg U19	7	−2	7
36	Carl Zeiss Jena U19	6	−3	7
37	Elversberg U19	6	−5	7
38	Sandhausen U19	7	−11	7
39	Hertha BSC U19	6	+1	6
40	Schalke 04 U19	5	+1	6
41	Meppen U19	5	−1	6
42	Fortuna Düsseldorf U19	5	−2	6
43	Babelsberg U19	6	−3	6
44	BAK 07 U19	6	−4	6
45	Fortuna Köln U19	7	−4	6
46	Wehen Wiesbaden U19	5	−10	6
47	Erzgebirge Aue U19	7	−14	6
48	Osnabrück U19	5	+1	5
49	Unterhaching U19	6	−4	5
50	Rot-Weiss Essen U19	5	−6	5
51	Stuttgarter K'rs U19	7	−13	5
52	Ulm U19	7	−2	4
53	Holstein Kiel U19	6	−5	4
54	Alemannia Aachen U19	6	−7	4
55	Jahn Regensburg U19	6	−7	4
56	Greuther Fürth U19	5	−7	4
57	Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19	6	−11	4
58	SGV Freiberg Fussball U19	6	−11	4
59	Chemnitzer FC U19	5	−6	3
60	Paderborn U19	6	−8	3
61	Hansa Rostock U19	7	−8	2
62	FSV Frankfurt U19	6	−10	2
63	RW Oberhausen U19	5	−11	0
64	Havelse U19	6	−25	0
65	Saarbrücken U19	7	−30	0