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Greuther Fürth U19 v Erzgebirge Aue U19

Greuther Fürth U19

12:00Upcoming

Erzgebirge Aue U19

U19 Bundesliga · SUN 25 OCT

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Greuther Fürth U19DrawErzgebirge Aue U19

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Greuther Fürth U19 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Greuther Fürth U19 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Greuther Fürth U19 45%, draw 23%, Erzgebirge Aue U19 32%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Greuther Fürth U19 v Erzgebirge Aue U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Greuther Fürth U19 win45%

Draw23%

Erzgebirge Aue U19 win32%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 12:00

RoundPreliminary

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Greuther Fürth U19

Erzgebirge Aue U19

14Days since last match29

Last match: 11 Oct · U19 Bundesliga

Last match: 26 Sept · U19 Bundesliga

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
46	Greuther Fürth U19	6	−5	7
52	Erzgebirge Aue U19	7	−14	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · greuther fürth u19 winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Greuther Fürth U19 a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Greuther Fürth U19 v Erzgebirge Aue U19~~1.91 – 1.58

~~Form · last six in U19 Bundesliga this season · since 14 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 7 v 6~~46 v 52

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Greuther Fürth U19 win	45%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Erzgebirge Aue U19 win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	67%	–	–
Both teams to score	67%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	46%	–	–
Greuther Fürth U19 or draw	68%	–	–
Greuther Fürth U19 clean sheet	21%	–	–
Erzgebirge Aue U19 clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.5%

0123450 3.6 4.6 3.9 2.0 1 5.6 9.5 7.1 3.8 2 5.6 8.6 6.7 3.5 3 3.6 5.5 4.3 2.3 4 2.7 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Greuther Fürth U19 down, Erzgebirge Aue U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,632 U19 Bundesliga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: U19 Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 76.7% of games this season, across 232 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Greuther Fürth U19 at home: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Erzgebirge Aue U19 away: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.91 goals for Greuther Fürth U19, 1.58 for Erzgebirge Aue U19. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ERZ 0–3 GRE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in U19 Bundesliga this season · since 14 Aug

GREUTHER FÜRTH U19

WLLLDW3–0 · 0–2 · 0–6 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 3–1

ERZGEBIRGE AUE U19

LLLLWL0–3 · 1–7 · 2–7 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bayer Leverkusen U19	8	+19	24
2	Union Berlin U19	8	+17	22
3	RB Leipzig U19	8	+17	21
4	Freiburg U19	9	+11	21
5	Köln U19	8	+20	20
6	Eintracht Frankf U19	8	+21	19
7	Hannover 96 U19	7	+12	18
8	Hoffenheim U19	9	+20	17
9	Heidenheim U19	8	+13	17
10	Borussia Dortmund U19	7	+13	17
11	MSV Duisburg U19	7	+11	17
12	Stuttgart U19	8	+9	17
13	Viktoria Köln U19	8	+22	16
14	Werder Bremen U19	7	+9	16
15	Wolfsburg U19	8	+16	15
16	Bayern München U19	7	+11	15
17	Arminia Bielefeld U19	7	+11	15
18	Preußen Münster U19	6	+10	15
19	Hamburger SV U19	7	+7	15
20	1860 München U19	8	+9	14
21	Borussia M'bach U19	7	+5	13
22	Hallescher FC U19	7	+3	13
23	Magdeburg U19	6	+3	13
24	Bochum U19	7	+9	12
25	Energie Cottbus U19	7	+7	12
26	Mainz 05 U19	7	+6	12
27	Karlsruher SC U19	8	−5	12
28	Rot-Weiss Essen U19	8	−2	11
29	Nürnberg U19	7	+3	10
30	Darmstadt 98 U19	7	−1	10
31	St. Pauli U19	7	−1	10
32	Carl Zeiss Jena U19	8	−5	10
33	Eintracht Braunsch U19	8	−12	10
34	Hertha BSC U19	7	+3	9
35	Fortuna Düsseldorf U19	7	0	9
36	Schalke 04 U19	7	0	9
37	Dynamo Dresden U19	8	−2	9
38	Babelsberg U19	8	−3	9
39	Ingolstadt U19	8	−4	9
40	BAK 07 U19	8	−6	9
41	Kaiserslautern U19	6	+1	8
42	Unterhaching U19	8	−9	8
43	Sandhausen U19	9	−14	8
44	Augsburg U19	8	−4	7
45	Jahn Regensburg U19	7	−5	7
46	Greuther Fürth U19	6	−5	7
47	Wehen Wiesbaden U19	8	−13	7
48	Elversberg U19	8	−16	7
49	Fortuna Köln U19	7	−4	6
50	Paderborn U19	8	−10	6
51	Meppen U19	7	−11	6
52	Erzgebirge Aue U19	7	−14	6
53	Stuttgarter K'rs U19	9	−19	6
54	Ulm U19	8	−2	5
55	Osnabrück U19	6	−4	5
56	Hansa Rostock U19	8	−5	5
57	FSV Frankfurt U19	7	−9	5
58	Holstein Kiel U19	7	−7	4
59	Alemannia Aachen U19	6	−7	4
60	SGV Freiberg Fussball U19	6	−11	4
61	Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19	8	−20	4
62	Chemnitzer FC U19	7	−10	3
63	RW Oberhausen U19	8	−18	0
64	Havelse U19	7	−28	0
65	Saarbrücken U19	8	−32	0