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Model 1.1

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Wiedenbrück v Bonner SC

Wiedenbrück
2–5Full time
Bonner SC

Regionalliga - West · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:46
Wiedenbrück 2–5 Bonner SC BONNER SC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Bonner SC win43%
The market said45%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.483
The market’s Brier score0.447

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 21 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Bonner SC win at 43%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Wiedenbrück v Bonner SC
  3. 2′Much as we predicted: Bonner SC was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 30–25–44
  4. 20′⚽ GOAL · 19' Wiedenbrück 0–1 Bonner SC
  5. 22′L. de Meester scores for Bonner SC on 21′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 10–19–71
  6. 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Bonner SC win: 43% at kick-off, 71% now
  7. 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Bonner SC win: 43% at kick-off, 44% now
  8. 23′L. de Meester scores for Bonner SC on 21′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 10–19–71
  9. 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Bonner SC win: 43% at kick-off, 71% now
  10. 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Bonner SC win: 43% at kick-off, 44% now
  11. 32′⚽ GOAL · 31' Wiedenbrück 0–2 Bonner SC
  12. 43′31′ and it is 0–2: S. Breuer on the scoresheet for Bonner SC. 0–2 · 1–6–93
  13. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Bonner SC win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
  14. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Bonner SC win: 43% at kick-off, 71% now
  15. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Bonner SC win: 43% at kick-off, 71% now
  16. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Bonner SC win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
  17. 45′31′ and it is 0–2: S. Breuer on the scoresheet for Bonner SC. 0–2 · 1–6–93
  18. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Bonner SC win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
  19. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Bonner SC win: 43% at kick-off, 71% now
  20. 45′HALF-TIME Wiedenbrück 0–2 Bonner SC
  21. 46′SECOND HALF Wiedenbrück 0–2 Bonner SC
  22. 48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Wiedenbrück 1–2 Bonner SC
  23. 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Wiedenbrück 1–3 Bonner SC
  24. 63′⚽ GOAL · 62' Wiedenbrück 2–3 Bonner SC
  25. 73′⚽ GOAL · 72' Wiedenbrück 2–4 Bonner SC
  26. 80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Wiedenbrück 2–5 Bonner SC
  27. FTFULL TIME Wiedenbrück 2–5 Bonner SC
  28. FTWiedenbrück 2–5 Bonner SC · Bonner SC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Wiedenbrück win29%
Draw27%
Bonner SC win43%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Wiedenbrück

Bonner SC

8Days since last match9
2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
9Bonner SC11+115
17Wiedenbrück11−128

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bonner sc winPublished 11 Oct 13:14
43% The market45%
Us43%
Market45%

We make Bonner SC a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 9 OCT 06:1911 OCT 04:03
Our probability · bonner sc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 49% to 45% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Wiedenbrück win29%29%+1
Draw27%26%+1
Bonner SC win43%45%−2
Over 2.5 goals53%58%−5
Both teams to score57%61%−4
Over 1.5 goals78%80%−2
Over 3.5 goals31%37%−6
Wiedenbrück or draw57%55%+2
Wiedenbrück clean sheet21%––
Bonner SC clean sheet29%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%
0123450 7.5 8.1 7.3 3.8 1 6.3 12.8 8.9 4.7 2 4.7 7.2 5.6 2.9 3 2.0 3.0 2.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Wiedenbrück down, Bonner SC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting2.75
Over 2.53 of 4
Both scored3 of 4
Last meetingsWIE 2–2 BON · BON 2–1 WIE · BON 0–0 WIE · WIE 3–1 BON

Form · last six in Regionalliga - West

WIEDENBRÜCK

LWWLLL1–4 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 1–3

BONNER SC

DWDWDW2–2 · 2–1 · 3–3 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Rot-weiss Oberhausen12+2131
2Borussia Dortmund II12+1328
3FC Gutersloh12+823
4Borussia M'gladbach II11+1220
5Sportfreunde Siegen12+619
6Schalke 04 II11+418
7Westfalia Rhynern12−317
8Bergisch Gladbach12−716
9Bonner SC11+115
10Hilden12−615
11Köln II10+114
12FC Bocholt12−413
13Paderborn II12−413
14SG Wattenscheid 0912−512
15Bochum II11−611
16SV Rodinghausen11−59
17Wiedenbrück11−128
18Sportfreunde Lotte12−146

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.