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SV Rodinghausen v Köln II

SV Rodinghausen

2–3Full time

Köln II

Regionalliga - West · FRI 16 OCT

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:01

SV Rodinghausen 2–3 Köln II KÖLN II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Köln II win~~38%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.583

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.652

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Köln II win at 38%.
1′SV Rodinghausen find the net on 1′. 1–0. 1–0 · 61–19–20
1′KICK-OFF SV Rodinghausen v Köln II
7′We said Köln II at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 61–20–19
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Köln II win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
20′A goal for Köln II on 20′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 36–26–37
20′Little has changed for our model: Köln II 38% before kick-off, 37% now. 1–1 · 36–26–37
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' SV Rodinghausen 1–1 Köln II
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Köln II win: 38% at kick-off, 37% now
24′M. El Mala scores for Köln II on 17′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 36–27–37
31′Köln II score on 31′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 14–21–65
31′We said Köln II at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 1–2 · 14–21–65
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' SV Rodinghausen 1–2 Köln II
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Köln II win: 38% at kick-off, 65% now
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Köln II win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was SV Rodinghausen win 14%)
35′28′: M. El Mala on the scoresheet for Köln II, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 13–21–65
45′HALF-TIME SV Rodinghausen 1–2 Köln II
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Köln II win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
46′SECOND HALF SV Rodinghausen 1–2 Köln II
53′We said Köln II at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–2 · 9–22–70
64′Köln II find the net on 64′. 1–3. 1–3 · 1–5–94
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' SV Rodinghausen 1–3 Köln II
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Köln II win: 38% at kick-off, 94% now
65′We said Köln II at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–3 · 1–5–95
66′Köln II ahead on 63′ through E. Borie. 1–3. 1–3 · 1–4–95
66′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 1–4–95
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Köln II win: 38% at kick-off, 98% now
85′We said Köln II at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
88′A goal for SV Rodinghausen on 88′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 0–6–93
88′We said Köln II at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–3 · 0–6–93
88′5 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 0–6–93
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' SV Rodinghausen 2–3 Köln II
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Köln II win: 38% at kick-off, 93% now
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Köln II win: 38% at kick-off, 98% now
FTFULL TIME SV Rodinghausen 2–3 Köln II
FTSV Rodinghausen 2–3 Köln II · Köln II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Köln II just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: SV Rodinghausen 37%, draw 25%, Köln II 38%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on SV Rodinghausen v Köln IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

SV Rodinghausen win37%

Draw25%

Köln II win38%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 18:30

RoundWest · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SV Rodinghausen

Köln II

5Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · the German Regionalliga - West

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Köln II	11	0	14
16	SV Rodinghausen	12	−6	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · köln ii winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 12 Oct 00:09 · locked at kick-off

38% The market35%

Us38%

~~Market~~35%

We make Köln II a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · SV Rodinghausen v Köln II~~1.68 – 1.70

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - West this season · since 1 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 9 v 14~~16 v 11

~~The market · Köln II win~~35% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Köln II win The market, margin stripped

Published at 37%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SV Rodinghausen win	37%	39%	−2
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Köln II win	38%	35%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	65%	58%	+7
Both teams to score	67%	61%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	86%	79%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	44%	36%	+8
SV Rodinghausen or draw	62%	65%	−3
SV Rodinghausen clean sheet	19%	–	–
Köln II clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 4.7 4.9 5.0 2.8 1 4.8 10.7 8.1 4.6 2 4.8 8.0 6.7 3.8 3 2.7 4.5 3.8 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SV Rodinghausen down, Köln II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,695 Regionalliga - West matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - West matches have gone over 2.5 in 72.0% of games this season, across 107 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SV Rodinghausen at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Köln II away: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.68 goals for SV Rodinghausen, 1.70 for Köln II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~KOL 2–1 SVR · SVR 2–3 KOL · KOL 1–0 SVR · SVR 2–0 KOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - West this season · since 1 Sept

SV RODINGHAUSEN

LLDLWL2–3 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 5–6

KÖLN II

WLLLWL4–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 4–3 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rot-weiss Oberhausen	12	+21	31
2	Borussia Dortmund II	12	+13	28
3	Borussia M'gladbach II	12	+13	23
4	FC Gutersloh	12	+8	23
5	Sportfreunde Siegen	12	+6	19
6	Bonner SC	12	+4	18
7	Schalke 04 II	11	+4	18
8	Westfalia Rhynern	12	−3	17
9	Bergisch Gladbach	12	−7	16
10	Hilden	12	−6	15
11	Köln II	11	0	14
12	Bochum II	12	−5	14
13	FC Bocholt	12	−4	13
14	Paderborn II	12	−4	13
15	SG Wattenscheid 09	12	−5	12
16	SV Rodinghausen	12	−6	9
17	Wiedenbrück	12	−15	8
18	Sportfreunde Lotte	12	−14	6