Sportfreunde Siegen v Rot-weiss Oberhausen prediction · Regionalliga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Sportfreunde Siegen 3–1 Rot-weiss Oberhausen ROT-WEISS OBERHAUSEN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rot-weiss Oberhausen win~~42%

~~The market said~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.703

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.203

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rot-weiss Oberhausen win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Rot-weiss Oberhausen was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 32–26–42
1′KICK-OFF Sportfreunde Siegen v Rot-weiss Oberhausen
35′Sportfreunde Siegen find the net on 35′. 1–0. 1–0 · 62–23–15
35′We said Rot-weiss Oberhausen at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 1–0 · 62–23–15
35′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 62–23–15
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Sportfreunde Siegen 1–0 Rot-weiss Oberhausen
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Rot-weiss Oberhausen win: 42% at kick-off, 15% now
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Sportfreunde Siegen win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Rot-weiss Oberhausen win 15%)
38′We said Rot-weiss Oberhausen at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 63–23–14
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Rot-weiss Oberhausen win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
45′HALF-TIME Sportfreunde Siegen 1–0 Rot-weiss Oberhausen
46′SECOND HALF Sportfreunde Siegen 1–0 Rot-weiss Oberhausen
54′A goal for Sportfreunde Siegen on 53′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 90–7–2
54′We said Rot-weiss Oberhausen at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 2–0 · 90–7–2
54′⚽ GOAL · 53' Sportfreunde Siegen 2–0 Rot-weiss Oberhausen
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Rot-weiss Oberhausen win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
79′Rot-weiss Oberhausen score on 79′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 84–14–2
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Sportfreunde Siegen 2–1 Rot-weiss Oberhausen
96′Sportfreunde Siegen find the net on 90′. 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
96′4 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
96′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' Sportfreunde Siegen 3–1 Rot-weiss Oberhausen
FTFULL TIME Sportfreunde Siegen 3–1 Rot-weiss Oberhausen
FTSportfreunde Siegen 3–1 Rot-weiss Oberhausen · Rot-weiss Oberhausen win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rot-weiss Oberhausen are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sportfreunde Siegen 32%, draw 26%, Rot-weiss Oberhausen 42%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Sportfreunde Siegen v Rot-weiss OberhausenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sportfreunde Siegen win32%

Draw26%

Rot-weiss Oberhausen win42%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundWest · matchday 13

VenueLeimbachstadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sportfreunde Siegen

Rot-weiss Oberhausen

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · the German Regionalliga - West

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rot-weiss oberhausen winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

42% The market66%

Us42%

~~Market~~66%

We make Rot-weiss Oberhausen a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are 24 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sportfreunde Siegen v Rot-weiss Oberhausen~~1.47 – 1.71

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - West this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 19 v 31~~5 v 1

~~The market · Rot-weiss Oberhausen win~~66% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Rot-weiss Oberhausen win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 66% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sportfreunde Siegen win	32%	15%	+17
Draw	26%	20%	+6
Rot-weiss Oberhausen win	42%	66%	−24
Over 2.5 goals	61%	60%	+1
Both teams to score	63%	54%	+9
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	38%	+1
Sportfreunde Siegen or draw	58%	34%	+24
Sportfreunde Siegen clean sheet	19%	–	–
Rot-weiss Oberhausen clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 5.6 6.1 6.1 3.5 1 5.1 11.5 8.7 5.0 2.2 2 4.6 7.5 6.4 3.6 3 2.2 3.7 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sportfreunde Siegen down, Rot-weiss Oberhausen across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,698 Regionalliga - West matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - West matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.8% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sportfreunde Siegen at home: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Rot-weiss Oberhausen away: 3.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Sportfreunde Siegen, 1.71 for Rot-weiss Oberhausen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ROT 3–1 SPO · SPO 0–1 ROT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - West this season · since 5 Sept

SPORTFREUNDE SIEGEN

WDWWLW3–1 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 5–0

ROT-WEISS OBERHAUSEN

WWWWWW3–0 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rot-weiss Oberhausen	12	+21	31
2	Borussia Dortmund II	12	+13	28
3	FC Gutersloh	13	+9	26
4	Borussia M'gladbach II	12	+13	23
5	Sportfreunde Siegen	12	+6	19
6	Schalke 04 II	12	+4	19
7	Bonner SC	12	+4	18
8	Westfalia Rhynern	13	−3	18
9	Köln II	12	+1	17
10	Bergisch Gladbach	12	−7	16
11	Hilden	12	−6	15
12	Bochum II	12	−5	14
13	FC Bocholt	12	−4	13
14	Paderborn II	12	−4	13
15	SG Wattenscheid 09	13	−6	12
16	SV Rodinghausen	13	−7	9
17	Wiedenbrück	12	−15	8
18	Sportfreunde Lotte	12	−14	6