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Sportfreunde Lotte v Paderborn II

Sportfreunde Lotte

1–0Full time

Paderborn II

Regionalliga - West · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Sportfreunde Lotte 1–0 Paderborn II PADERBORN II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Paderborn II win~~44%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.756

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.064

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Paderborn II win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Paderborn II 44% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 31–24–45
1′KICK-OFF Sportfreunde Lotte v Paderborn II
45′HALF-TIME Sportfreunde Lotte 0–0 Paderborn II
48′SECOND HALF Sportfreunde Lotte 0–0 Paderborn II
65′We said Paderborn II at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 21–52–27
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Paderborn II win: 44% at kick-off, 27% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Draw is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Paderborn II win 27%)
74′⚽ GOAL · 72' Sportfreunde Lotte 1–0 Paderborn II
82′⚽ GOAL · 72' Sportfreunde Lotte 1–0 Paderborn II · R. Shivani
86′R. Shivani scores for Sportfreunde Lotte on 72′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 93–6–0
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Paderborn II win: 44% at kick-off, 0% now
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Sportfreunde Lotte win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 6%)
FTFULL TIME Sportfreunde Lotte 1–0 Paderborn II
FTSportfreunde Lotte 1–0 Paderborn II · Paderborn II win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Sportfreunde Lotte win30%

Draw27%

Paderborn II win44%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · paderborn ii winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

44% The market59%

Us44%

~~Market~~59%

We make Paderborn II a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 16 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · paderborn ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 61% to 59% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sportfreunde Lotte win	30%	19%	+11
Draw	27%	22%	+5
Paderborn II win	44%	59%	−16
Over 2.5 goals	57%	60%	−4
Both teams to score	60%	57%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	81%	80%	0
Over 3.5 goals	35%	40%	−6
Sportfreunde Lotte or draw	56%	41%	+16
Sportfreunde Lotte clean sheet	20%	–	–
Paderborn II clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 6.7 7.2 7.0 3.8 1 5.6 12.4 9.0 4.9 2.1 2 4.5 7.3 5.9 3.3 3 2.0 3.2 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sportfreunde Lotte down, Paderborn II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,686 Regionalliga - West matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Regionalliga - West matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.4% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sportfreunde Lotte at home: 0.33 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Paderborn II away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Sportfreunde Lotte, 1.64 for Paderborn II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~PAD 3–1 SPO · SPO 1–1 PAD · PAD 1–3 SPO · SPO 3–2 PAD

Form · last six in Regionalliga - West

SPORTFREUNDE LOTTE

LLLLLL0–2 · 2–3 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 0–5 · 1–2

PADERBORN II

DWLDWL2–2 · 5–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rot-weiss Oberhausen	11	+19	28
2	Borussia Dortmund II	11	+12	25
3	FC Gutersloh	11	+13	23
4	Borussia M'gladbach II	11	+12	20
5	Westfalia Rhynern	11	−2	17
6	Sportfreunde Siegen	11	+1	16
7	Bergisch Gladbach	11	−3	16
8	Bonner SC	11	+1	15
9	Schalke 04 II	10	0	15
10	Köln II	10	+1	14
11	FC Bocholt	11	−2	13
12	Paderborn II	11	−3	13
13	SG Wattenscheid 09	11	−4	12
14	Hilden	11	−7	12
15	Bochum II	11	−6	11
16	SV Rodinghausen	11	−5	9
17	Wiedenbrück	11	−12	8
18	Sportfreunde Lotte	11	−15	3