Schalke 04 II v Köln II prediction · Regionalliga

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 17:31

Schalke 04 II 1–3 Köln II SCHALKE 04 II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Schalke 04 II win~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.843

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Schalke 04 II win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Schalke 04 II 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–22–27
1′KICK-OFF Schalke 04 II v Köln II
31′Köln II score on 30′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 23–23–54
31′We said Schalke 04 II at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–1 · 23–23–54
31′The goal count is tracking the 3.9 we expected. 0–1 · 23–23–54
31′⚽ GOAL · 30' Schalke 04 II 0–1 Köln II
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Schalke 04 II win: 51% at kick-off, 23% now
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Köln II win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Schalke 04 II win 47%)
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Schalke 04 II win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
42′We said Schalke 04 II at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–24–56
45′HALF-TIME Schalke 04 II 0–1 Köln II
46′SECOND HALF Schalke 04 II 0–1 Köln II
54′We said Schalke 04 II at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–61
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Schalke 04 II win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
65′We said Schalke 04 II at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–66
75′We said Schalke 04 II at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
78′Köln II find the net on 77′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–97
78′⚽ GOAL · 77' Schalke 04 II 0–2 Köln II
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Schalke 04 II win: 51% at kick-off, under 1% now
86′A goal for Köln II on 86′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Schalke 04 II 0–3 Köln II
92′Schalke 04 II score on 90′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Schalke 04 II 1–3 Köln II
93′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.9 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Schalke 04 II 1–3 Köln II
FTSchalke 04 II 1–3 Köln II · Schalke 04 II win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Schalke 04 II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Schalke 04 II 51%, draw 22%, Köln II 27%. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 72%.

The AI’s read on Schalke 04 II v Köln IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Schalke 04 II win51%

Draw22%

Köln II win27%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 15:00

RoundWest · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Schalke 04 II

Köln II

4Days since last match4

Last match: 16 Oct · the German Regionalliga - West

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Schalke 04 II	12	+4	19
10	Köln II	12	+1	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · schalke 04 ii winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 17 Oct 00:11 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Schalke 04 II a 51% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Schalke 04 II v Köln II~~2.26 – 1.61

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - West this season · since 4 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 19 v 17~~6 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Schalke 04 II win

Published at 52%, 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Schalke 04 II win	51%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Köln II win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	73%	–	–
Both teams to score	72%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	54%	–	–
Schalke 04 II or draw	73%	–	–
Schalke 04 II clean sheet	20%	–	–
Köln II clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.4%

0123450 3.1 2.8 2.8 1 4.1 8.4 6.1 3.3 2 5.3 8.4 6.7 3.6 3 4.0 6.2 5.0 2.7 4 2.3 3.6 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Schalke 04 II down, Köln II across0–5 goals a side shown (96.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,703 Regionalliga - West matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - West matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.3% of games this season, across 115 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Schalke 04 II at home: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Köln II away: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.26 goals for Schalke 04 II, 1.61 for Köln II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~KOL 1–5 SCH · SCH 2–3 KOL · SCH 1–0 KOL · KOL 4–0 SCH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - West this season · since 4 Sept

SCHALKE 04 II

LLWWWD1–3 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 5–1 · 1–1

KÖLN II

LLLWLW1–2 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 4–3 · 1–2 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rot-weiss Oberhausen	13	+19	31
2	Borussia Dortmund II	13	+15	31
3	Borussia M'gladbach II	13	+14	26
4	FC Gutersloh	13	+9	26
5	Sportfreunde Siegen	13	+8	22
6	Schalke 04 II	12	+4	19
7	Bonner SC	13	+3	18
8	Westfalia Rhynern	13	−3	18
9	Hilden	13	−5	18
10	Köln II	12	+1	17
11	FC Bocholt	13	−3	16
12	Bergisch Gladbach	13	−8	16
13	Bochum II	12	−5	14
14	Paderborn II	12	−4	13
15	SG Wattenscheid 09	13	−6	12
16	SV Rodinghausen	13	−7	9
17	Wiedenbrück	13	−17	8
18	Sportfreunde Lotte	13	−15	6