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Rot-weiss Oberhausen v FC Bocholt

Rot-weiss Oberhausen
3–1Full time
FC Bocholt

Regionalliga - West · SAT 10 OCT · Niederrheinstadion

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38
Rot-weiss Oberhausen 3–1 FC Bocholt ROT-WEISS OBERHAUSEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Rot-weiss Oberhausen win60%
The market said54%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.244
The market’s Brier score0.311

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 14 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Rot-weiss Oberhausen win at 60%.
  2. 2′KICK-OFF Rot-weiss Oberhausen v FC Bocholt
  3. 3′Much as we predicted: Rot-weiss Oberhausen was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 61% now. 0–0 · 61–20–20
  4. 4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Rot-weiss Oberhausen 1–0 FC Bocholt
  5. 11′⚽ GOAL · 10' Rot-weiss Oberhausen 1–1 FC Bocholt
  6. 24′FC Bocholt ahead on 10′ through D. Lanius. 1–1. 1–1 · 56–24–20
  7. 43′Goals are coming at about the 3.6 we expected. 1–1 · 50–30–20
  8. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Rot-weiss Oberhausen win: 60% at kick-off, 50% now
  9. 45′HALF-TIME Rot-weiss Oberhausen 1–1 FC Bocholt
  10. 48′SECOND HALF Rot-weiss Oberhausen 1–1 FC Bocholt
  11. 50′We said Rot-weiss Oberhausen at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 46%. 1–1 · 46–34–20
  12. 67′We said Rot-weiss Oberhausen at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 35%. 1–1 · 35–48–17
  13. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Rot-weiss Oberhausen win: 60% at kick-off, 35% now
  14. 67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Rot-weiss Oberhausen win 35%)
  15. 83′⚽ GOAL · 4' Rot-weiss Oberhausen 1–1 FC Bocholt · T. M. Kesim
  16. 83′⚽ GOAL · 10' Rot-weiss Oberhausen 1–1 FC Bocholt · D. Lanius
  17. 89′We said Rot-weiss Oberhausen at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 1–1 · 3–96–1
  18. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Rot-weiss Oberhausen win: 60% at kick-off, 3% now
  19. 90′⚽ GOAL · 89' Rot-weiss Oberhausen 2–1 FC Bocholt
  20. 90′⚽ GOAL · 93' Rot-weiss Oberhausen 3–1 FC Bocholt
  21. FTFULL TIME Rot-weiss Oberhausen 3–1 FC Bocholt
  22. FTRot-weiss Oberhausen 3–1 FC Bocholt · Rot-weiss Oberhausen win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Rot-weiss Oberhausen win60%
Draw21%
FC Bocholt win19%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

Venue · Niederrheinstadion

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rot-weiss oberhausen winPublished 10 Oct 13:12
60% The market54%
Us60%
Market54%

We make Rot-weiss Oberhausen a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60%65%70%75% 9 OCT 06:1910 OCT 03:56
Our probability · rot-weiss oberhausen win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 73% to 54% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Rot-weiss Oberhausen win60%54%+5
Draw21%23%−1
FC Bocholt win19%23%−4
Over 2.5 goals69%67%+2
Both teams to score65%65%0
Over 1.5 goals88%85%+3
Over 3.5 goals48%47%+2
Rot-weiss Oberhausen or draw81%77%+4
Rot-weiss Oberhausen clean sheet28%––
FC Bocholt clean sheet10%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.2%
0123450 3.9 2.6 2.3 1 5.5 9.0 5.1 2.2 2 7.3 9.2 5.8 2.5 3 5.7 7.1 4.5 4 3.4 4.2 2.6 5 2.0
under 2% 5% 12%+Rot-weiss Oberhausen down, FC Bocholt across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022
Goals a meeting2.75
Over 2.54 of 8
Both scored6 of 8
Last meetingsFCB 2–2 ROT · ROT 3–2 FCB · ROT 1–2 FCB · FCB 1–1 ROT

Form · last six in Regionalliga - West

ROT-WEISS OBERHAUSEN

WWWWWW4–1 · 3–0 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 4–0

FC BOCHOLT

DLDWLL2–2 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–4 · 3–4

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Rot-weiss Oberhausen11+1928
2Borussia Dortmund II11+1225
3FC Gutersloh11+1323
4Borussia M'gladbach II11+1220
5Westfalia Rhynern11−217
6Sportfreunde Siegen11+116
7Bergisch Gladbach11−316
8Bonner SC11+115
9Schalke 04 II10015
10Köln II10+114
11FC Bocholt11−213
12Paderborn II11−313
13SG Wattenscheid 0911−412
14Hilden11−712
15Bochum II11−611
16SV Rodinghausen11−59
17Wiedenbrück11−128
18Sportfreunde Lotte11−153

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.