Paderborn II v Bergisch Gladbach prediction · Regionalliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Paderborn IIDrawBergisch Gladbach

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Paderborn II 52%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Paderborn II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Paderborn II 52%, draw 23%, Bergisch Gladbach 25%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Paderborn II v Bergisch GladbachBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Paderborn II win52%

Draw23%

Bergisch Gladbach win25%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 13:00

RoundWest · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Paderborn II

Bergisch Gladbach

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the German Regionalliga - West

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Bergisch Gladbach	14	−8	17
14	Paderborn II	13	−4	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · paderborn ii winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Paderborn II a 52% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Paderborn II v Bergisch Gladbach~~2.05 – 1.36

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - West this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 14 v 17~~14 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Paderborn II win	52%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Bergisch Gladbach win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	66%	–	–
Both teams to score	65%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	44%	–	–
Paderborn II or draw	75%	–	–
Paderborn II clean sheet	26%	–	–
Bergisch Gladbach clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 4.6 3.7 3.2 1 5.9 10.1 6.2 2.9 2 6.9 9.1 6.2 2.9 3 4.7 6.2 4.2 4 2.5 3.2 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Paderborn II down, Bergisch Gladbach across0–5 goals a side shown (97.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,712 Regionalliga - West matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - West matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.0% of games this season, across 124 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Paderborn II at home: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Bergisch Gladbach away: 1.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.05 goals for Paderborn II, 1.36 for Bergisch Gladbach. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - West this season · since 12 Sept

PADERBORN II

LDWLLD0–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 2–2

BERGISCH GLADBACH

LWLLLD2–3 · 4–2 · 2–4 · 1–5 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Borussia Dortmund II	14	+17	34
2	Rot-weiss Oberhausen	13	+19	31
3	FC Gutersloh	14	+11	29
4	Borussia M'gladbach II	14	+13	26
5	Sportfreunde Siegen	14	+11	25
6	Köln II	14	+3	21
7	Westfalia Rhynern	14	−2	21
8	Schalke 04 II	14	+2	20
9	Hilden	14	−5	19
10	Bonner SC	14	+1	18
11	FC Bocholt	14	−3	17
12	Bergisch Gladbach	14	−8	17
13	Bochum II	13	−5	15
14	Paderborn II	13	−4	14
15	SG Wattenscheid 09	13	−6	12
16	SV Rodinghausen	14	−7	10
17	Wiedenbrück	14	−19	8
18	Sportfreunde Lotte	14	−18	6