Home › Football › Regionalliga - West › Köln II v Paderborn II
Back

Köln II v Paderborn II
Köln II
Paderborn IIRegionalliga - West · SAT 24 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Köln II win at 38%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Köln II 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–25–37
- 1′KICK-OFF Köln II v Paderborn II
- 45′HALF-TIME Köln II 0–0 Paderborn II
- 46′A goal for Paderborn II on 45′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 11–22–68
- 46′We said Köln II at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–22–68
- 46′⚽ GOAL · 45' Köln II 0–1 Paderborn II
- 46′SECOND HALF Köln II 0–1 Paderborn II
- 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Köln II win: 38% at kick-off, 11% now
- 46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Paderborn II win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 35%)
- 48′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+3' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Köln II win 33%)
- 51′We said Köln II at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–69
- 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Köln II win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
- 56′Paderborn II score on 56′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 2–6–92
- 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Köln II 0–2 Paderborn II
- 57′We said Köln II at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–6–92
- 57′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 0–2 · 1–6–92
- 62′Köln II find the net on 62′. 1–2. 1–2 · 6–21–73
- 62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Köln II 1–2 Paderborn II
- 94′A goal for Köln II on 90′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 2–96–2
- 94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Köln II 2–2 Paderborn II
- 94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' Draw is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Paderborn II win 98%)
- 95′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 2–96–2
- FTFULL TIME Köln II 2–2 Paderborn II
- FTKöln II 2–2 Paderborn II · Köln II win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Close to call, with Köln II just ahead.
The Pitchside prediction: Köln II 38%, draw 25%, Paderborn II 37%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 65%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
Köln II win38%
Paderborn II win37%Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00
RoundWest · matchday 14
Match timeline
All events
Köln IIMIN
Paderborn IIEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Köln II
Paderborn II
Last match: 20 Oct · the German Regionalliga - West
Last match: 10 Oct · the German Regionalliga - West
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Köln II a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.6.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 36%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Köln II win | 38% | 53% | −15 |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | +2 |
| Paderborn II win | 37% | 24% | +13 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 58% | +5 |
| Both teams to score | 65% | 59% | +6 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | – | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | 36% | +5 |
| Köln II or draw | 63% | 76% | −13 |
| Köln II clean sheet | 20% | – | – |
| Paderborn II clean sheet | 20% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
6 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Regionalliga - West this season · since 6 Sept
KÖLN II
PADERBORN II
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borussia Dortmund II | 14 | +17 | 34 |
| 2 | Rot-weiss Oberhausen | 13 | +19 | 31 |
| 3 | FC Gutersloh | 14 | +11 | 29 |
| 4 | Borussia M'gladbach II | 13 | +14 | 26 |
| 5 | Sportfreunde Siegen | 13 | +8 | 22 |
| 6 | Köln II | 13 | +3 | 20 |
| 7 | Schalke 04 II | 13 | +2 | 19 |
| 8 | Bonner SC | 14 | +1 | 18 |
| 9 | Westfalia Rhynern | 13 | −3 | 18 |
| 10 | Hilden | 13 | −5 | 18 |
| 11 | FC Bocholt | 13 | −3 | 16 |
| 12 | Bergisch Gladbach | 13 | −8 | 16 |
| 13 | Bochum II | 12 | −5 | 14 |
| 14 | Paderborn II | 12 | −4 | 13 |
| 15 | SG Wattenscheid 09 | 13 | −6 | 12 |
| 16 | SV Rodinghausen | 13 | −7 | 9 |
| 17 | Wiedenbrück | 14 | −19 | 8 |
| 18 | Sportfreunde Lotte | 13 | −15 | 6 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Borussia Dortmund II
Rot-weiss Oberhausen
FC Gutersloh
Borussia M'gladbach II
Sportfreunde Siegen
Schalke 04 II
Bonner SC
Westfalia Rhynern
Hilden
FC Bocholt
Bergisch Gladbach
Bochum II
SG Wattenscheid 09
SV Rodinghausen
Wiedenbrück
Sportfreunde Lotte