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Model 1.2

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Köln II v Paderborn II

Köln II
2–2Full time
Paderborn II

Regionalliga - West · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33
Köln II 2–2 Paderborn II KÖLN II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Köln II win38%
The market said53%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.842
The market’s Brier score0.924

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 13 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Köln II win at 38%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Köln II 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–25–37
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Köln II v Paderborn II
  4. 45′HALF-TIME Köln II 0–0 Paderborn II
  5. 46′A goal for Paderborn II on 45′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 11–22–68
  6. 46′We said Köln II at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–22–68
  7. 46′⚽ GOAL · 45' Köln II 0–1 Paderborn II
  8. 46′SECOND HALF Köln II 0–1 Paderborn II
  9. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Köln II win: 38% at kick-off, 11% now
  10. 46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Paderborn II win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 35%)
  11. 48′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+3' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Köln II win 33%)
  12. 51′We said Köln II at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–69
  13. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Köln II win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
  14. 56′Paderborn II score on 56′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 2–6–92
  15. 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Köln II 0–2 Paderborn II
  16. 57′We said Köln II at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–6–92
  17. 57′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 0–2 · 1–6–92
  18. 62′Köln II find the net on 62′. 1–2. 1–2 · 6–21–73
  19. 62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Köln II 1–2 Paderborn II
  20. 94′A goal for Köln II on 90′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 2–96–2
  21. 94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Köln II 2–2 Paderborn II
  22. 94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' Draw is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Paderborn II win 98%)
  23. 95′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 2–96–2
  24. FTFULL TIME Köln II 2–2 Paderborn II
  25. FTKöln II 2–2 Paderborn II · Köln II win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Köln II just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Köln II 38%, draw 25%, Paderborn II 37%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Köln II v Paderborn IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Köln II win38%
Draw25%
Paderborn II win37%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundWest · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Köln II

Paderborn II

4Days since last match14

Last match: 20 Oct · the German Regionalliga - West

Last match: 10 Oct · the German Regionalliga - West

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Köln II13+320
14Paderborn II12−413

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · köln ii winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 21 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off
38% The market53%
Us38%
Market53%

We make Köln II a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Köln II v Paderborn II1.64 – 1.63
Form · last six in Regionalliga - West this season · since 6 SeptW3 D0 L3 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 20 v 136 v 14
The market · Köln II win53% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50%55% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 13:32
Our probability · Köln II win The market, margin stripped

Published at 36%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Köln II win38%53%−15
Draw25%23%+2
Paderborn II win37%24%+13
Over 2.5 goals63%58%+5
Both teams to score65%59%+6
Over 1.5 goals84%––
Over 3.5 goals41%36%+5
Köln II or draw63%76%−13
Köln II clean sheet20%––
Paderborn II clean sheet20%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%
0123450 5.1 5.3 5.1 2.8 1 5.3 11.1 8.1 4.4 2 5.1 8.1 6.6 3.6 3 2.8 4.5 3.6 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Köln II down, Paderborn II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.33
Over 2.54 of 6
Both scored2 of 6
Last meetingsKOL 1–0 PAD · PAD 5–0 KOL · PAD 2–2 KOL · KOL 5–0 PAD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - West this season · since 6 Sept

KÖLN II

LLWLWW1–2 · 2–3 · 4–3 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 3–1

PADERBORN II

WLDWLL5–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–4 · 0–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Borussia Dortmund II14+1734
2Rot-weiss Oberhausen13+1931
3FC Gutersloh14+1129
4Borussia M'gladbach II13+1426
5Sportfreunde Siegen13+822
6Köln II13+320
7Schalke 04 II13+219
8Bonner SC14+118
9Westfalia Rhynern13−318
10Hilden13−518
11FC Bocholt13−316
12Bergisch Gladbach13−816
13Bochum II12−514
14Paderborn II12−413
15SG Wattenscheid 0913−612
16SV Rodinghausen13−79
17Wiedenbrück14−198
18Sportfreunde Lotte13−156

The competition's standings before kick-off.