Hilden v Schalke 04 II prediction · Regionalliga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Hilden 1–1 Schalke 04 II SCHALKE 04 II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Schalke 04 II win~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.912

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Schalke 04 II win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Schalke 04 II was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 29–23–48
1′KICK-OFF Hilden v Schalke 04 II
45′HALF-TIME Hilden 0–0 Schalke 04 II
46′SECOND HALF Hilden 0–0 Schalke 04 II
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Schalke 04 II win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
54′We said Schalke 04 II at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 37%. 0–0 · 25–38–37
55′We expected about 3.6 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 25–38–37
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Schalke 04 II win 38%)
60′We said Schalke 04 II at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 24–42–34
68′We said Schalke 04 II at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 21–50–29
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Schalke 04 II win: 49% at kick-off, 29% now
74′We said Schalke 04 II at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 17–58–24
77′Schalke 04 II find the net on 77′. 0–1. 0–1 · 2–14–85
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Hilden 0–1 Schalke 04 II
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Schalke 04 II win: 49% at kick-off, 85% now
77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Schalke 04 II win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 64%)
78′We published Schalke 04 II at 49%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 1–13–85
80′Schalke 04 II ahead on 78′ through M. Tubic. 0–1. 0–1 · 1–12–87
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Schalke 04 II win: 49% at kick-off, 89% now
83′We published Schalke 04 II at 49%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
89′We published Schalke 04 II at 49%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
90′A goal for Hilden on 89′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 5–89–6
90′We said Schalke 04 II at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 6%. 1–1 · 5–89–6
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' Hilden 1–1 Schalke 04 II
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Schalke 04 II win: 49% at kick-off, 6% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Schalke 04 II win 95%)
92′We said Schalke 04 II at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 3–92–4
FTFULL TIME Hilden 1–1 Schalke 04 II
FTHilden 1–1 Schalke 04 II · Schalke 04 II win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Schalke 04 II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hilden 29%, draw 23%, Schalke 04 II 49%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Hilden v Schalke 04 IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Hilden win29%

Draw23%

Schalke 04 II win49%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundWest · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hilden

Schalke 04 II

7Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · the German Regionalliga - West

Last match: 20 Oct · the German Regionalliga - West

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Schalke 04 II	13	+2	19
10	Hilden	13	−5	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · schalke 04 ii winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 21 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Schalke 04 II a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–2.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hilden v Schalke 04 II~~1.55 – 2.06

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - West this season · since 11 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 18 v 19~~10 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Schalke 04 II win

Published at 50%, 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hilden win	29%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Schalke 04 II win	49%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	69%	–	–
Both teams to score	69%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	48%	–	–
Hilden or draw	51%	–	–
Hilden clean sheet	13%	–	–
Schalke 04 II clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.5%

0123450 3.9 4.9 5.8 3.9 2.1 1 3.5 9.5 8.6 5.9 3.1 2 3.3 6.6 6.6 4.5 2.4 3 3.4 3.4 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hilden down, Schalke 04 II across0–5 goals a side shown (97.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,706 Regionalliga - West matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - West matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.2% of games this season, across 118 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Hilden at home: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Schalke 04 II away: 2.50 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Hilden, 2.06 for Schalke 04 II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - West this season · since 11 Sept

HILDEN

WLLWWW3–0 · 2–4 · 3–4 · 4–2 · 1–0 · 1–0

SCHALKE 04 II

LWWWDL2–3 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 5–1 · 1–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Borussia Dortmund II	14	+17	34
2	Rot-weiss Oberhausen	13	+19	31
3	FC Gutersloh	14	+11	29
4	Borussia M'gladbach II	13	+14	26
5	Sportfreunde Siegen	13	+8	22
6	Köln II	13	+3	20
7	Schalke 04 II	13	+2	19
8	Bonner SC	14	+1	18
9	Westfalia Rhynern	13	−3	18
10	Hilden	13	−5	18
11	FC Bocholt	13	−3	16
12	Bergisch Gladbach	13	−8	16
13	Bochum II	12	−5	14
14	Paderborn II	12	−4	13
15	SG Wattenscheid 09	13	−6	12
16	SV Rodinghausen	13	−7	9
17	Wiedenbrück	14	−19	8
18	Sportfreunde Lotte	13	−15	6