Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › Regionalliga - West › FC Gutersloh v Wiedenbrück

Back
Germany flag

FC Gutersloh v Wiedenbrück

FC Gutersloh
3–1Full time
Wiedenbrück

Regionalliga - West · FRI 23 OCT

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 21:06
FC Gutersloh 3–1 Wiedenbrück FC GUTERSLOH WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said FC Gutersloh win63%
The market said66%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.204
The market’s Brier score0.179

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 10 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said FC Gutersloh win at 63%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: FC Gutersloh 63% before kick-off, 63% now. 0–0 · 63–20–17
  3. 1′KICK-OFF FC Gutersloh v Wiedenbrück
  4. 28′FC Gutersloh score on 28′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 82–12–6
  5. 28′⚽ GOAL · 28' FC Gutersloh 1–0 Wiedenbrück
  6. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' FC Gutersloh win: 63% at kick-off, 82% now
  7. 29′We said FC Gutersloh at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 1–0 · 82–12–5
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 1–0 · 82–12–5
  9. 32′27′: P. Twardzik on the scoresheet for FC Gutersloh, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 82–13–5
  10. 45′FC Gutersloh find the net on 45′. 2–0. 2–0 · 96–4–1
  11. 45′We said FC Gutersloh at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
  12. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45' FC Gutersloh 2–0 Wiedenbrück
  13. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' FC Gutersloh win: 63% at kick-off, 96% now
  14. 45′HALF-TIME FC Gutersloh 2–0 Wiedenbrück
  15. 46′SECOND HALF FC Gutersloh 2–0 Wiedenbrück
  16. 74′A goal for FC Gutersloh on 74′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  17. 74′⚽ GOAL · 74' FC Gutersloh 3–0 Wiedenbrück
  18. 75′We said FC Gutersloh at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  19. 76′P. Twardzik scores for FC Gutersloh on 73′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  20. 76′Wiedenbrück score on 76′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  21. 76′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  22. 76′⚽ GOAL · 76' FC Gutersloh 3–1 Wiedenbrück
  23. FTFULL TIME FC Gutersloh 3–1 Wiedenbrück
  24. FTFC Gutersloh 3–1 Wiedenbrück · FC Gutersloh win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Gutersloh are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Gutersloh 63%, draw 20%, Wiedenbrück 17%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on FC Gutersloh v WiedenbrückBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

FC Gutersloh win63%
Draw20%
Wiedenbrück win17%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:30

RoundWest · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Gutersloh

Wiedenbrück

7Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · the German Regionalliga - West

Last match: 17 Oct · the German Regionalliga - West

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4FC Gutersloh13+926
17Wiedenbrück13−178

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc gutersloh winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
63% The market66%
Us63%
Market66%

We make FC Gutersloh a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · FC Gutersloh v Wiedenbrück2.37 – 1.14
Form · last six in Regionalliga - West this season · since 12 SeptW2 D1 L3 · W1 D0 L5
Table places · points 26 v 84 v 17
The market · FC Gutersloh win66% · ours 63%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
60%65%70%75% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 18:12
Our probability · FC Gutersloh win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 66% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
FC Gutersloh win63%66%−3
Draw20%19%+1
Wiedenbrück win17%15%+2
Over 2.5 goals67%67%0
Both teams to score62%60%+2
Over 1.5 goals87%85%+2
Over 3.5 goals46%47%−1
FC Gutersloh or draw83%85%−2
FC Gutersloh clean sheet32%––
Wiedenbrück clean sheet10%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.3%
0123450 4.1 2.8 2.1 1 6.4 8.9 4.6 2 8.3 9.3 5.3 2.0 3 6.5 7.2 4.1 4 3.9 4.3 2.4 5 2.1
under 2% 5% 12%+FC Gutersloh down, Wiedenbrück across0–5 goals a side shown (96.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.67
Over 2.53 of 6
Both scored3 of 6
Last meetingsWIE 1–1 FCG · FCG 1–0 WIE · WIE 0–3 FCG · FCG 3–1 WIE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - West this season · since 12 Sept

FC GUTERSLOH

LDLWLW1–2 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 4–3 · 0–5 · 2–1

WIEDENBRÜCK

WLLLLL1–0 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 2–5 · 2–4

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Rot-weiss Oberhausen13+1931
2Borussia Dortmund II13+1531
3Borussia M'gladbach II13+1426
4FC Gutersloh13+926
5Sportfreunde Siegen13+822
6Köln II13+320
7Schalke 04 II13+219
8Bonner SC13+318
9Westfalia Rhynern13−318
10Hilden13−518
11FC Bocholt13−316
12Bergisch Gladbach13−816
13Bochum II12−514
14Paderborn II12−413
15SG Wattenscheid 0913−612
16SV Rodinghausen13−79
17Wiedenbrück13−178
18Sportfreunde Lotte13−156

The competition's standings before kick-off.