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FC Gutersloh v Sportfreunde Siegen

FC Gutersloh

0–5Full time

Sportfreunde Siegen

Regionalliga - West · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

FC Gutersloh 0–5 Sportfreunde Siegen FC GUTERSLOH WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Gutersloh win~~46%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.784

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.764

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Gutersloh win at 46%.
2′KICK-OFF FC Gutersloh v Sportfreunde Siegen
4′Little has changed for our model: FC Gutersloh 46% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–23–30
36′⚽ GOAL · 35' FC Gutersloh 0–1 Sportfreunde Siegen
44′34′ and it is 0–1: E. Huth on the scoresheet for Sportfreunde Siegen. 0–1 · 14–25–61
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' FC Gutersloh win: 46% at kick-off, 14% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Sportfreunde Siegen win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was FC Gutersloh win 14%)
45′⚽ GOAL · 46' FC Gutersloh 0–2 Sportfreunde Siegen
45′HALF-TIME FC Gutersloh 0–2 Sportfreunde Siegen
46′Sportfreunde Siegen ahead on 45′ through S. Guler. 0–2. 0–2 · 4–10–86
46′SECOND HALF FC Gutersloh 0–2 Sportfreunde Siegen
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' FC Gutersloh win: 46% at kick-off, 4% now
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' FC Gutersloh 0–3 Sportfreunde Siegen
68′J. Rumpf scores for Sportfreunde Siegen on 52′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
77′⚽ GOAL · 76' FC Gutersloh 0–4 Sportfreunde Siegen
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' FC Gutersloh 0–5 Sportfreunde Siegen
85′⚽ GOAL · 34' FC Gutersloh 0–5 Sportfreunde Siegen · E. Huth
85′⚽ GOAL · 45' FC Gutersloh 0–5 Sportfreunde Siegen · S. Guler
85′⚽ GOAL · 52' FC Gutersloh 0–5 Sportfreunde Siegen · J. Rumpf
85′⚽ GOAL · 76' FC Gutersloh 0–5 Sportfreunde Siegen · K. Gerhardt
85′⚽ GOAL · 84' FC Gutersloh 0–5 Sportfreunde Siegen
89′Sportfreunde Siegen ahead on 83′ through L. Cueto. 0–5. 0–5 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME FC Gutersloh 0–5 Sportfreunde Siegen
FTFC Gutersloh 0–5 Sportfreunde Siegen · FC Gutersloh win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

FC Gutersloh win46%

Draw25%

Sportfreunde Siegen win29%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc gutersloh winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

46% The market48%

Us46%

~~Market~~48%

We make FC Gutersloh a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.4.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Gutersloh win	46%	48%	−2
Draw	25%	21%	+4
Sportfreunde Siegen win	29%	30%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	62%	72%	−10
Both teams to score	64%	71%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	51%	−11
FC Gutersloh or draw	71%	70%	+2
FC Gutersloh clean sheet	25%	–	–
Sportfreunde Siegen clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.4 4.5 4.0 1 6.1 11.2 7.0 3.3 2 6.6 9.0 6.3 3.0 3 4.0 5.5 3.8 4 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Gutersloh down, Sportfreunde Siegen across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,686 Regionalliga - West matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Regionalliga - West matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.4% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 5.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Gutersloh at home: 3.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Sportfreunde Siegen away: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.83 goals for FC Gutersloh, 1.40 for Sportfreunde Siegen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SPO 5–0 FCG · FCG 3–2 SPO

Form · last six in Regionalliga - West

FC GUTERSLOH

WWLDLW6–0 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 4–3

SPORTFREUNDE SIEGEN

DWDWWL2–2 · 3–1 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rot-weiss Oberhausen	11	+19	28
2	Borussia Dortmund II	11	+12	25
3	FC Gutersloh	11	+13	23
4	Borussia M'gladbach II	11	+12	20
5	Westfalia Rhynern	11	−2	17
6	Sportfreunde Siegen	11	+1	16
7	Bergisch Gladbach	11	−3	16
8	Bonner SC	11	+1	15
9	Schalke 04 II	10	0	15
10	Köln II	10	+1	14
11	FC Bocholt	11	−2	13
12	Paderborn II	11	−3	13
13	SG Wattenscheid 09	11	−4	12
14	Hilden	11	−7	12
15	Bochum II	11	−6	11
16	SV Rodinghausen	11	−5	9
17	Wiedenbrück	11	−12	8
18	Sportfreunde Lotte	11	−15	3