FC Bocholt v Sportfreunde Lotte prediction · Regionalliga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

FC Bocholt 1–0 Sportfreunde Lotte FC BOCHOLT WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Bocholt win~~45%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.457

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.226

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Bocholt win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: FC Bocholt was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–25–30
1′KICK-OFF FC Bocholt v Sportfreunde Lotte
45′HALF-TIME FC Bocholt 0–0 Sportfreunde Lotte
46′SECOND HALF FC Bocholt 0–0 Sportfreunde Lotte
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' FC Bocholt win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was FC Bocholt win 34%)
55′We expected about 3.3 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 34–41–25
57′We said FC Bocholt at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–42–25
64′We said FC Bocholt at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–48–23
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' FC Bocholt win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
72′We said FC Bocholt at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–58–19
77′We said FC Bocholt at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–66–15
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' FC Bocholt win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
82′We said FC Bocholt at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–76–11
86′We said FC Bocholt at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–84–7
87′FC Bocholt find the net on 87′. 1–0. 1–0 · 94–6–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' FC Bocholt 1–0 Sportfreunde Lotte
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' FC Bocholt win: 45% at kick-off, 94% now
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' FC Bocholt win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 6%)
88′We published FC Bocholt at 45%. Our model now makes it 94%. 1–0 · 94–6–0
89′We published FC Bocholt at 45%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' FC Bocholt win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
FTFULL TIME FC Bocholt 1–0 Sportfreunde Lotte
FTFC Bocholt 1–0 Sportfreunde Lotte · FC Bocholt win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Bocholt are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Bocholt 45%, draw 25%, Sportfreunde Lotte 30%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on FC Bocholt v Sportfreunde LotteBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

FC Bocholt win45%

Draw25%

Sportfreunde Lotte win30%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundWest · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Bocholt

Sportfreunde Lotte

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · the German Regionalliga - West

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	FC Bocholt	12	−4	13
18	Sportfreunde Lotte	12	−14	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc bocholt winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

45% The market61%

Us45%

~~Market~~61%

We make FC Bocholt a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 16 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Bocholt v Sportfreunde Lotte~~1.82 – 1.47

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - West this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 13 v 6~~13 v 18

~~The market · FC Bocholt win~~61% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Bocholt win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Bocholt win	45%	61%	−16
Draw	25%	21%	+4
Sportfreunde Lotte win	30%	18%	+12
Over 2.5 goals	64%	64%	0
Both teams to score	65%	60%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	85%	83%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	42%	44%	−2
FC Bocholt or draw	70%	82%	−12
FC Bocholt clean sheet	23%	–	–
Sportfreunde Lotte clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.0 4.5 4.1 2.0 1 5.8 10.9 7.2 3.6 2 6.2 8.8 6.4 3.2 3 3.8 5.4 3.9 4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Bocholt down, Sportfreunde Lotte across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,698 Regionalliga - West matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - West matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.8% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Bocholt at home: 2.33 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). Sportfreunde Lotte away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.82 goals for FC Bocholt, 1.47 for Sportfreunde Lotte. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SPO 1–1 FCB · FCB 4–1 SPO · FCB 3–4 SPO · SPO 4–1 FCB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - West this season · since 5 Sept

FC BOCHOLT

LDWLLL1–3 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–4 · 3–4 · 1–3

SPORTFREUNDE LOTTE

LLLLLW2–3 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 0–5 · 1–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rot-weiss Oberhausen	12	+21	31
2	Borussia Dortmund II	12	+13	28
3	FC Gutersloh	13	+9	26
4	Borussia M'gladbach II	12	+13	23
5	Sportfreunde Siegen	12	+6	19
6	Schalke 04 II	12	+4	19
7	Bonner SC	12	+4	18
8	Westfalia Rhynern	13	−3	18
9	Köln II	12	+1	17
10	Bergisch Gladbach	12	−7	16
11	Hilden	12	−6	15
12	Bochum II	12	−5	14
13	FC Bocholt	12	−4	13
14	Paderborn II	12	−4	13
15	SG Wattenscheid 09	13	−6	12
16	SV Rodinghausen	13	−7	9
17	Wiedenbrück	12	−15	8
18	Sportfreunde Lotte	12	−14	6