Borussia M'gladbach II v Bergisch Gladbach prediction · Regionalliga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Borussia M'gladbach II 2–1 Bergisch Gladbach BORUSSIA M'GLADBACH II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Borussia M'gladbach II win~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.241

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Borussia M'gladbach II win at 60%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Borussia M'gladbach II 60% before kick-off, 60% now. 0–0 · 60–21–20
1′KICK-OFF Borussia M'gladbach II v Bergisch Gladbach
6′Borussia M'gladbach II score on 5′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 80–12–8
6′⚽ GOAL · 5' Borussia M'gladbach II 1–0 Bergisch Gladbach
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Borussia M'gladbach II win: 60% at kick-off, 80% now
7′We said Borussia M'gladbach II at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–12–8
8′11′: N. Vidic on the scoresheet for Borussia M'gladbach II, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 80–12–8
24′We said Borussia M'gladbach II at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–13–7
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.7 we expected. 1–0 · 79–14–7
33′Borussia M'gladbach II find the net on 33′. 2–0. 2–0 · 93–5–2
33′We said Borussia M'gladbach II at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–0 · 93–5–2
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Borussia M'gladbach II 2–0 Bergisch Gladbach
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Borussia M'gladbach II win: 60% at kick-off, 93% now
41′Borussia M'gladbach II ahead on 38′ through J. Uwakhonye. 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
45′HALF-TIME Borussia M'gladbach II 2–0 Bergisch Gladbach
46′SECOND HALF Borussia M'gladbach II 2–0 Bergisch Gladbach
47′We said Borussia M'gladbach II at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
83′We said Borussia M'gladbach II at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Borussia M'gladbach II win: 60% at kick-off, over 99% now
86′A goal for Bergisch Gladbach on 85′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 94–6–0
86′⚽ GOAL · 85' Borussia M'gladbach II 2–1 Bergisch Gladbach
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Borussia M'gladbach II win: 60% at kick-off, 94% now
92′T. Arndt scores for Bergisch Gladbach on 81′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 97–3–0
FTFULL TIME Borussia M'gladbach II 2–1 Bergisch Gladbach
FTBorussia M'gladbach II 2–1 Bergisch Gladbach · Borussia M'gladbach II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Borussia M'gladbach II are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Borussia M'gladbach II 60%, draw 20%, Bergisch Gladbach 20%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Borussia M'gladbach II v Bergisch GladbachBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Borussia M'gladbach II win60%

Draw20%

Bergisch Gladbach win20%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundWest · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Borussia M'gladbach II

Bergisch Gladbach

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · the German Regionalliga - West

Last match: 10 Oct · the German Regionalliga - West

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Borussia M'gladbach II	12	+13	23
10	Bergisch Gladbach	12	−7	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · borussia m'gladbach ii winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

60% The market–

Us60%

We make Borussia M'gladbach II a 60% chance to win. The model expects 2.4–1.3, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Borussia M'gladbach II v Bergisch Gladbach~~2.40 – 1.32

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - West this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 23 v 16~~4 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Borussia M'gladbach II win	60%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Bergisch Gladbach win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	71%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	51%	–	–
Borussia M'gladbach II or draw	80%	–	–
Borussia M'gladbach II clean sheet	27%	–	–
Bergisch Gladbach clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.9%

0123450 3.5 2.5 2.2 1 5.1 8.5 5.1 2.3 2 7.0 8.9 5.8 2.6 3 5.5 7.0 4.6 2.0 4 3.4 4.3 2.8 5 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Borussia M'gladbach II down, Bergisch Gladbach across0–5 goals a side shown (95.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,698 Regionalliga - West matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - West matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.8% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Borussia M'gladbach II at home: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Bergisch Gladbach away: 2.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.40 goals for Borussia M'gladbach II, 1.32 for Bergisch Gladbach. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - West this season · since 5 Sept

BORUSSIA M'GLADBACH II

DWLWLW0–0 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 5–0 · 2–3 · 2–1

BERGISCH GLADBACH

WWLWLL1–0 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 4–2 · 2–4 · 1–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rot-weiss Oberhausen	12	+21	31
2	Borussia Dortmund II	12	+13	28
3	FC Gutersloh	13	+9	26
4	Borussia M'gladbach II	12	+13	23
5	Sportfreunde Siegen	12	+6	19
6	Schalke 04 II	12	+4	19
7	Bonner SC	12	+4	18
8	Westfalia Rhynern	13	−3	18
9	Köln II	12	+1	17
10	Bergisch Gladbach	12	−7	16
11	Hilden	12	−6	15
12	Bochum II	12	−5	14
13	FC Bocholt	12	−4	13
14	Paderborn II	12	−4	13
15	SG Wattenscheid 09	13	−6	12
16	SV Rodinghausen	13	−7	9
17	Wiedenbrück	12	−15	8
18	Sportfreunde Lotte	12	−14	6