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Borussia Dortmund II v SG Wattenscheid 09

Borussia Dortmund II

3–2Full time

SG Wattenscheid 09

Regionalliga - West · SAT 10 OCT · Stadion Rote Erde

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Borussia Dortmund II 3–2 SG Wattenscheid 09 BORUSSIA DORTMUND II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Borussia Dortmund II win~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.205

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Borussia Dortmund II win at 63%.
1′KICK-OFF Borussia Dortmund II v SG Wattenscheid 09
3′Much as we predicted: Borussia Dortmund II was 63% before kick-off and our model makes it 64% now. 0–0 · 64–18–17
26′⚽ GOAL · 25' Borussia Dortmund II 0–1 SG Wattenscheid 09
38′⚽ GOAL · 37' Borussia Dortmund II 1–1 SG Wattenscheid 09
43′37′ and it is 1–1: S. Inacio on the scoresheet for Borussia Dortmund II. 1–1 · 52–29–18
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Borussia Dortmund II win: 63% at kick-off, 52% now
45′Borussia Dortmund II ahead on 45′ through A. Azhil. 2–1. 2–1 · 82–14–5
45′⚽ GOAL · 48' Borussia Dortmund II 2–1 SG Wattenscheid 09
45′HALF-TIME Borussia Dortmund II 2–1 SG Wattenscheid 09
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Borussia Dortmund II win: 63% at kick-off, 82% now
47′SECOND HALF Borussia Dortmund II 2–1 SG Wattenscheid 09
64′We published Borussia Dortmund II at 63%. Our model now makes it 84%. 2–1 · 84–14–3
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Borussia Dortmund II win: 63% at kick-off, 84% now
82′⚽ GOAL · 25' Borussia Dortmund II 2–2 SG Wattenscheid 09 · R. Nnaji
82′⚽ GOAL · 37' Borussia Dortmund II 2–2 SG Wattenscheid 09 · S. Inacio
82′⚽ GOAL · 48' Borussia Dortmund II 2–2 SG Wattenscheid 09 · A. Azhil
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Borussia Dortmund II 2–2 SG Wattenscheid 09
85′K. Kurt scores for SG Wattenscheid 09 on 82′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 12–82–6
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Borussia Dortmund II win: 63% at kick-off, 12% now
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Draw is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Borussia Dortmund II win 12%)
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' Borussia Dortmund II 3–2 SG Wattenscheid 09
FTFULL TIME Borussia Dortmund II 3–2 SG Wattenscheid 09
FTBorussia Dortmund II 3–2 SG Wattenscheid 09 · Borussia Dortmund II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Borussia Dortmund II win63%

Draw20%

SG Wattenscheid 09 win17%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

Venue · Stadion Rote Erde

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · borussia dortmund ii winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

63% The market–

Us63%

We make Borussia Dortmund II a 63% chance to win. The model expects 2.5–1.2, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Borussia Dortmund II win	63%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
SG Wattenscheid 09 win	17%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	70%	–	–
Both teams to score	64%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	50%	–	–
Borussia Dortmund II or draw	83%	–	–
Borussia Dortmund II clean sheet	30%	–	–
SG Wattenscheid 09 clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.9%

0123450 3.8 2.4 2.0 1 5.5 8.6 4.6 2 7.6 8.9 5.4 2.2 3 6.1 7.2 4.3 4 3.8 4.5 2.7 5 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Borussia Dortmund II down, SG Wattenscheid 09 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,686 Regionalliga - West matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Regionalliga - West matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.4% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Borussia Dortmund II at home: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). SG Wattenscheid 09 away: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.47 goals for Borussia Dortmund II, 1.21 for SG Wattenscheid 09. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - West

BORUSSIA DORTMUND II

DWWDWW0–0 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 4–2 · 3–1

SG WATTENSCHEID 09

WLDLDW2–1 · 2–5 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rot-weiss Oberhausen	11	+19	28
2	Borussia Dortmund II	11	+12	25
3	FC Gutersloh	11	+13	23
4	Borussia M'gladbach II	11	+12	20
5	Westfalia Rhynern	11	−2	17
6	Sportfreunde Siegen	11	+1	16
7	Bergisch Gladbach	11	−3	16
8	Bonner SC	11	+1	15
9	Schalke 04 II	10	0	15
10	Köln II	10	+1	14
11	FC Bocholt	11	−2	13
12	Paderborn II	11	−3	13
13	SG Wattenscheid 09	11	−4	12
14	Hilden	11	−7	12
15	Bochum II	11	−6	11
16	SV Rodinghausen	11	−5	9
17	Wiedenbrück	11	−12	8
18	Sportfreunde Lotte	11	−15	3