Borussia Dortmund II v Bonner SC prediction · Regionalliga

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 21:06

Borussia Dortmund II 2–0 Bonner SC BORUSSIA DORTMUND II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Borussia Dortmund II win~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.361

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Borussia Dortmund II win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: Borussia Dortmund II was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–25–24
1′KICK-OFF Borussia Dortmund II v Bonner SC
36′A goal for Borussia Dortmund II on 35′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–17–7
36′We published Borussia Dortmund II at 51%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–17–7
36′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 76–17–7
36′⚽ GOAL · 35' Borussia Dortmund II 1–0 Bonner SC
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Borussia Dortmund II win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
45′HALF-TIME Borussia Dortmund II 1–0 Bonner SC
46′SECOND HALF Borussia Dortmund II 1–0 Bonner SC
60′We published Borussia Dortmund II at 51%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Borussia Dortmund II win: 51% at kick-off, 81% now
73′We published Borussia Dortmund II at 51%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
81′We published Borussia Dortmund II at 51%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Borussia Dortmund II win: 51% at kick-off, 91% now
84′Borussia Dortmund II score on 84′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
84′We published Borussia Dortmund II at 51%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Borussia Dortmund II 2–0 Bonner SC
FTFULL TIME Borussia Dortmund II 2–0 Bonner SC
FTBorussia Dortmund II 2–0 Bonner SC · Borussia Dortmund II win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Borussia Dortmund II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Borussia Dortmund II 51%, draw 25%, Bonner SC 24%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Borussia Dortmund II v Bonner SCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Borussia Dortmund II win51%

Draw25%

Bonner SC win24%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:30

RoundWest · matchday 14

VenueStadion Rote Erde

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Borussia Dortmund II

Bonner SC

6Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · the German Regionalliga - West

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Borussia Dortmund II	13	+15	31
8	Bonner SC	13	+3	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · borussia dortmund ii winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Borussia Dortmund II a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Borussia Dortmund II v Bonner SC~~1.87 – 1.24

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - West this season · since 12 Sept~~W5 D1 L0 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 31 v 18~~2 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Borussia Dortmund II win

Published at 50%, 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Borussia Dortmund II win	51%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Bonner SC win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	38%	–	–
Borussia Dortmund II or draw	76%	–	–
Borussia Dortmund II clean sheet	29%	–	–
Bonner SC clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 5.8 4.6 3.5 1 7.4 11.3 6.3 2.6 2 7.8 9.4 5.8 2.4 3 4.9 5.9 3.6 4 2.3 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Borussia Dortmund II down, Bonner SC across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,704 Regionalliga - West matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - West matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.6% of games this season, across 116 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Borussia Dortmund II at home: 2.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Bonner SC away: 2.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.87 goals for Borussia Dortmund II, 1.24 for Bonner SC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BON 0–1 BOR · BOR 1–1 BON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - West this season · since 12 Sept

BORUSSIA DORTMUND II

WDWWWW2–1 · 1–1 · 4–2 · 3–1 · 3–2 · 4–2

BONNER SC

DWDWWL3–3 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 5–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rot-weiss Oberhausen	13	+19	31
2	Borussia Dortmund II	13	+15	31
3	Borussia M'gladbach II	13	+14	26
4	FC Gutersloh	13	+9	26
5	Sportfreunde Siegen	13	+8	22
6	Köln II	13	+3	20
7	Schalke 04 II	13	+2	19
8	Bonner SC	13	+3	18
9	Westfalia Rhynern	13	−3	18
10	Hilden	13	−5	18
11	FC Bocholt	13	−3	16
12	Bergisch Gladbach	13	−8	16
13	Bochum II	12	−5	14
14	Paderborn II	12	−4	13
15	SG Wattenscheid 09	13	−6	12
16	SV Rodinghausen	13	−7	9
17	Wiedenbrück	13	−17	8
18	Sportfreunde Lotte	13	−15	6