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Model 1.2

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Bonner SC v Hilden

Bonner SC
0–1Full time
Hilden

Regionalliga - West · SAT 17 OCT · Sportpark Nord

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35
Bonner SC 0–1 Hilden BONNER SC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Bonner SC win47%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.813

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 8 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Bonner SC win at 47%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Bonner SC 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–26–27
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Bonner SC v Hilden
  4. 35′A goal for Hilden on 34′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 17–24–59
  5. 35′We said Bonner SC at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–24–59
  6. 35′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 0–1 · 17–24–59
  7. 35′⚽ GOAL · 34' Bonner SC 0–1 Hilden
  8. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Bonner SC win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
  9. 35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Hilden win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Bonner SC win 17%)
  10. 44′We said Bonner SC at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–61
  11. 45′HALF-TIME Bonner SC 0–1 Hilden
  12. 46′SECOND HALF Bonner SC 0–1 Hilden
  13. 58′We said Bonner SC at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
  14. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Bonner SC win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
  15. 71′We said Bonner SC at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–75
  16. FTFULL TIME Bonner SC 0–1 Hilden
  17. FTBonner SC 0–1 Hilden · Bonner SC win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bonner SC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bonner SC 47%, draw 25%, Hilden 27%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Bonner SC v HildenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Bonner SC win47%
Draw25%
Hilden win27%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundWest · matchday 13

VenueSportpark Nord

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bonner SC

Hilden

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · the German Regionalliga - West

Last match: 10 Oct · the German Regionalliga - West

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
7Bonner SC12+418
11Hilden12−615

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bonner sc winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:09 · locked at kick-off
47% The market–
Us47%

We make Bonner SC a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Bonner SC v Hilden1.77 – 1.30
Form · last six in Regionalliga - West this season · since 4 SeptW4 D2 L0 · W3 D0 L3
Table places · points 18 v 157 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 11 OCT 04:0317 OCT 12:18
Our probability · Bonner SC win

Published at 45%, 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Bonner SC win47%––
Draw25%––
Hilden win27%––
Over 2.5 goals59%––
Both teams to score61%––
Over 1.5 goals82%––
Over 3.5 goals37%––
Bonner SC or draw73%––
Bonner SC clean sheet28%––
Hilden clean sheet18%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%
0123450 6.1 5.0 4.0 1 7.1 11.7 6.8 3.0 2 7.2 9.1 5.9 2.6 3 4.3 5.4 3.5 4 2.5 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Bonner SC down, Hilden across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - West this season · since 4 Sept

BONNER SC

WDWDWW2–1 · 3–3 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 5–2

HILDEN

LWLLWW0–3 · 3–0 · 2–4 · 3–4 · 4–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Rot-weiss Oberhausen12+2131
2Borussia Dortmund II12+1328
3FC Gutersloh13+926
4Borussia M'gladbach II12+1323
5Sportfreunde Siegen12+619
6Schalke 04 II12+419
7Bonner SC12+418
8Westfalia Rhynern13−318
9Köln II12+117
10Bergisch Gladbach12−716
11Hilden12−615
12Bochum II12−514
13FC Bocholt12−413
14Paderborn II12−413
15SG Wattenscheid 0913−612
16SV Rodinghausen13−79
17Wiedenbrück12−158
18Sportfreunde Lotte12−146

The competition's standings before kick-off.