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Bergisch Gladbach v Schalke 04 II

Bergisch Gladbach

1–5Full time

Schalke 04 II

Regionalliga - West · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Bergisch Gladbach 1–5 Schalke 04 II SCHALKE 04 II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Schalke 04 II win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.406

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Schalke 04 II win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Schalke 04 II was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 30–21–49
1′KICK-OFF Bergisch Gladbach v Schalke 04 II
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Bergisch Gladbach 0–1 Schalke 04 II
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Bergisch Gladbach 1–1 Schalke 04 II
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Bergisch Gladbach 1–2 Schalke 04 II
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Bergisch Gladbach 1–3 Schalke 04 II
41′31′ and it is 1–3: J. Ndiaye on the scoresheet for Schalke 04 II. 1–3 · 3–7–90
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Schalke 04 II win: 48% at kick-off, 90% now
45′We published Schalke 04 II at 48%. Our model now makes it 91%. 1–3 · 2–7–91
45′HALF-TIME Bergisch Gladbach 1–3 Schalke 04 II
48′SECOND HALF Bergisch Gladbach 1–3 Schalke 04 II
63′⚽ GOAL · 62' Bergisch Gladbach 1–4 Schalke 04 II
65′Schalke 04 II ahead on 62′ through E. Gashi. 1–4. 1–4 · 0–1–99
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Schalke 04 II win: 48% at kick-off, 99% now
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Bergisch Gladbach 1–5 Schalke 04 II
83′⚽ GOAL · 25' Bergisch Gladbach 1–5 Schalke 04 II · F. Stromberg
83′⚽ GOAL · 27' Bergisch Gladbach 1–5 Schalke 04 II · M. Rosner
83′⚽ GOAL · 29' Bergisch Gladbach 1–5 Schalke 04 II · L. Vozar
83′⚽ GOAL · 31' Bergisch Gladbach 1–5 Schalke 04 II · J. Ndiaye
83′⚽ GOAL · 62' Bergisch Gladbach 1–5 Schalke 04 II · E. Gashi
83′⚽ GOAL · 77' Bergisch Gladbach 1–5 Schalke 04 II · M. Rosner
86′M. Rosner scores for Schalke 04 II on 77′ — 1–5. 1–5 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Bergisch Gladbach 1–5 Schalke 04 II
FTBergisch Gladbach 1–5 Schalke 04 II · Schalke 04 II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Bergisch Gladbach win30%

Draw22%

Schalke 04 II win48%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · schalke 04 ii winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Schalke 04 II a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–2.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bergisch Gladbach win	30%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Schalke 04 II win	48%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	74%	–	–
Both teams to score	73%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	91%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	55%	–	–
Bergisch Gladbach or draw	52%	–	–
Bergisch Gladbach clean sheet	12%	–	–
Schalke 04 II clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.4%

0123450 3.1 3.6 4.9 3.6 1 2.7 8.4 8.0 5.9 3.3 2 3.0 6.4 6.8 4.9 2.8 3 3.6 3.9 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bergisch Gladbach down, Schalke 04 II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,686 Regionalliga - West matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Regionalliga - West matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.4% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Bergisch Gladbach at home: 1.40 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 5). Schalke 04 II away: 2.50 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for Bergisch Gladbach, 2.20 for Schalke 04 II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - West

BERGISCH GLADBACH

WWWLWL2–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 4–2 · 2–4

SCHALKE 04 II

WLLLWW4–1 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rot-weiss Oberhausen	11	+19	28
2	Borussia Dortmund II	11	+12	25
3	FC Gutersloh	11	+13	23
4	Borussia M'gladbach II	11	+12	20
5	Westfalia Rhynern	11	−2	17
6	Sportfreunde Siegen	11	+1	16
7	Bergisch Gladbach	11	−3	16
8	Bonner SC	11	+1	15
9	Schalke 04 II	10	0	15
10	Köln II	10	+1	14
11	FC Bocholt	11	−2	13
12	Paderborn II	11	−3	13
13	SG Wattenscheid 09	11	−4	12
14	Hilden	11	−7	12
15	Bochum II	11	−6	11
16	SV Rodinghausen	11	−5	9
17	Wiedenbrück	11	−12	8
18	Sportfreunde Lotte	11	−15	3