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VfR Mannheim v Stuttgarter Kickers

VfR Mannheim

2–0Full time

Stuttgarter Kickers

Regionalliga - SudWest · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

VfR Mannheim 2–0 Stuttgarter Kickers VFR MANNHEIM WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said VfR Mannheim win~~37%

~~The market said~~25%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.599

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.917

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said VfR Mannheim win at 37%.
1′KICK-OFF VfR Mannheim v Stuttgarter Kickers
2′Much as we predicted: VfR Mannheim was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–26–37
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' VfR Mannheim 1–0 Stuttgarter Kickers
22′VfR Mannheim ahead on 5′ through A. Esswein. 1–0. 1–0 · 65–21–13
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' VfR Mannheim win: 37% at kick-off, 65% now
42′We published VfR Mannheim at 37%. Our model now makes it 69%. 1–0 · 69–22–9
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' VfR Mannheim win: 37% at kick-off, 69% now
45′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 69–22–9
45′HALF-TIME VfR Mannheim 1–0 Stuttgarter Kickers
46′SECOND HALF VfR Mannheim 1–0 Stuttgarter Kickers
63′We published VfR Mannheim at 37%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–20–5
79′⚽ GOAL · 5' VfR Mannheim 1–0 Stuttgarter Kickers · A. Esswein
84′We published VfR Mannheim at 37%. Our model now makes it 92%. 1–0 · 92–8–0
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' VfR Mannheim win: 37% at kick-off, 92% now
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' VfR Mannheim 2–0 Stuttgarter Kickers
FTFULL TIME VfR Mannheim 2–0 Stuttgarter Kickers
FTVfR Mannheim 2–0 Stuttgarter Kickers · VfR Mannheim win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

VfR Mannheim win37%

Draw27%

Stuttgarter Kickers win36%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vfr mannheim winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

37% The market25%

Us37%

~~Market~~25%

We make VfR Mannheim a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 25%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.4.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
VfR Mannheim win	37%	25%	+12
Draw	27%	20%	+7
Stuttgarter Kickers win	36%	56%	−19
Over 2.5 goals	52%	74%	−22
Both teams to score	56%	71%	−15
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	54%	−24
VfR Mannheim or draw	64%	44%	+19
VfR Mannheim clean sheet	26%	–	–
Stuttgarter Kickers clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.2 8.0 6.0 2.8 1 8.1 12.5 8.1 3.7 2 6.1 8.2 5.6 2.6 3 2.9 3.9 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+VfR Mannheim down, Stuttgarter Kickers across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,654 Regionalliga - SudWest matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Regionalliga - SudWest matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.9% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

VfR Mannheim at home: 1.40 scored, 0.80 conceded a game (last 5). Stuttgarter Kickers away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for VfR Mannheim, 1.38 for Stuttgarter Kickers. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - SudWest

VFR MANNHEIM

DDWDWW0–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 5–1

STUTTGARTER KICKERS

LLWWDW1–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	SGV Freiberg	10	+15	20
2	Kickers Offenbach	11	+7	20
3	Stuttgarter Kickers	10	+6	20
4	VfR Aalen	10	+7	18
5	Freiburg II	9	+7	16
6	FC 08 Homburg	11	0	16
7	Eintracht Trier	10	0	16
8	VfR Mannheim	9	+5	14
9	TSV Steinbach	10	0	13
10	SV Sandhausen	10	−4	13
11	FSV Frankfurt	9	+1	12
12	Hessen Kassel	10	−2	11
13	Eintracht Frankfurt II	8	−1	10
14	FC Astoria Walldorf	10	−3	9
15	FSV Mainz 05 II	10	−11	9
16	Kaiserslautern II	9	−11	9
17	Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.	10	−8	6
18	SSV Ulm 1846	10	−8	5