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Model 1.2

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TSV Steinbach v VfR Mannheim

TSV Steinbach
0–2Full time
VfR Mannheim

Regionalliga - SudWest · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38
TSV Steinbach 0–2 VfR Mannheim TSV STEINBACH WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said TSV Steinbach win42%
The market said31%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.675
The market’s Brier score0.455

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 11 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said TSV Steinbach win at 42%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: TSV Steinbach 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–24–34
  3. 1′KICK-OFF TSV Steinbach v VfR Mannheim
  4. 45′HALF-TIME TSV Steinbach 0–0 VfR Mannheim
  5. 46′SECOND HALF TSV Steinbach 0–0 VfR Mannheim
  6. 50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was TSV Steinbach win 35%)
  7. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' TSV Steinbach win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
  8. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.2 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 32–41–27
  9. 55′VfR Mannheim score on 55′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 9–23–68
  10. 55′⚽ GOAL · 55' TSV Steinbach 0–1 VfR Mannheim
  11. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' TSV Steinbach win: 42% at kick-off, 9% now
  12. 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' VfR Mannheim win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 41%)
  13. 56′We said TSV Steinbach at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–69
  14. 64′VfR Mannheim find the net on 64′. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–94
  15. 64′We said TSV Steinbach at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–5–94
  16. 64′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 0–2 · 1–5–94
  17. 64′⚽ GOAL · 64' TSV Steinbach 0–2 VfR Mannheim
  18. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' TSV Steinbach win: 42% at kick-off, 1% now
  19. 66′VfR Mannheim ahead on 63′ through H. Hartmann. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–95
  20. FTFULL TIME TSV Steinbach 0–2 VfR Mannheim
  21. FTTSV Steinbach 0–2 VfR Mannheim · TSV Steinbach win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

TSV Steinbach are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: TSV Steinbach 42%, draw 24%, VfR Mannheim 34%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on TSV Steinbach v VfR MannheimBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

TSV Steinbach win42%
Draw24%
VfR Mannheim win34%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundSudwest · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

TSV Steinbach

VfR Mannheim

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Regionalliga - SudWest

Last match: 17 Oct · Regionalliga - SudWest

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3VfR Mannheim12+1123
10TSV Steinbach12+216

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tsv steinbach winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
42% The market31%
Us42%
Market31%

We make TSV Steinbach a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · TSV Steinbach v VfR Mannheim1.69 – 1.48
Form · last six in Regionalliga - SudWest this season · since 12 SeptW3 D1 L2 · W5 D1 L0
Table places · points 16 v 2310 v 3
The market · TSV Steinbach win31% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
25%30%35%40%45% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 12:18
Our probability · TSV Steinbach win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 31% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
TSV Steinbach win42%31%+11
Draw24%24%0
VfR Mannheim win34%45%−11
Over 2.5 goals61%59%+2
Both teams to score63%61%+2
Over 1.5 goals83%––
Over 3.5 goals39%37%+2
TSV Steinbach or draw66%55%+11
TSV Steinbach clean sheet23%––
VfR Mannheim clean sheet19%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%
0123450 5.0 5.8 4.7 2.4 1 6.6 10.9 7.6 3.8 2 6.0 8.6 6.3 3.1 3 3.4 4.8 3.5 4 2.1 5
under 2% 5% 12%+TSV Steinbach down, VfR Mannheim across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023/24

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023/24.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - SudWest this season · since 12 Sept

TSV STEINBACH

WLWDWL2–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 4–0 · 1–3

VFR MANNHEIM

DWWWWW0–0 · 3–2 · 5–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1SGV Freiberg13+1927
2VfR Aalen12+1124
3VfR Mannheim12+1123
4Stuttgarter Kickers12+623
5Kickers Offenbach13+621
6FC 08 Homburg12+119
7SV Sandhausen12−119
8Eintracht Trier12−319
9Freiburg II12+517
10TSV Steinbach12+216
11Hessen Kassel12−414
12FSV Frankfurt12−213
13Eintracht Frankfurt II11−213
14FSV Mainz 05 II12−1111
15Kaiserslautern II13−1311
16FC Astoria Walldorf12−510
17SSV Ulm 184612−79
18Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.12−136

The competition's standings before kick-off.