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TSV Steinbach v Eintracht Trier

TSV Steinbach

4–0Full time

Eintracht Trier

Regionalliga - SudWest · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

TSV Steinbach 4–0 Eintracht Trier TSV STEINBACH WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said TSV Steinbach win~~55%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.310

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.546

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said TSV Steinbach win at 55%.
1′KICK-OFF TSV Steinbach v Eintracht Trier
2′Much as we predicted: TSV Steinbach was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–22–23
27′⚽ GOAL · 26' TSV Steinbach 1–0 Eintracht Trier
42′E. Hajdaraj scores for TSV Steinbach on 26′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 78–16–6
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' TSV Steinbach win: 55% at kick-off, 78% now
45′HALF-TIME TSV Steinbach 1–0 Eintracht Trier
47′SECOND HALF TSV Steinbach 1–0 Eintracht Trier
48′E. Hajdaraj scores for TSV Steinbach on 28′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–16–5
66′We published TSV Steinbach at 55%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–0 · 83–15–3
71′⚽ GOAL · 69' TSV Steinbach 2–0 Eintracht Trier · E. Hajdaraj
82′⚽ GOAL · 28' TSV Steinbach 3–0 Eintracht Trier · E. Hajdaraj
82′⚽ GOAL · 69' TSV Steinbach 3–0 Eintracht Trier · E. Hajdaraj
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' TSV Steinbach 3–0 Eintracht Trier
86′⚽ GOAL · 85' TSV Steinbach 4–0 Eintracht Trier
88′E. Hajdaraj scores for TSV Steinbach on 85′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' TSV Steinbach win: 55% at kick-off, 100% now
FTFULL TIME TSV Steinbach 4–0 Eintracht Trier
FTTSV Steinbach 4–0 Eintracht Trier · TSV Steinbach win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

TSV Steinbach win55%

Draw23%

Eintracht Trier win22%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tsv steinbach winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

55% The market40%

Us55%

~~Market~~40%

We make TSV Steinbach a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 15 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · tsv steinbach win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 29% to 40% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
TSV Steinbach win	55%	40%	+15
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Eintracht Trier win	22%	35%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	60%	63%	−3
Both teams to score	60%	65%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	82%	82%	0
Over 3.5 goals	38%	43%	−5
TSV Steinbach or draw	78%	65%	+13
TSV Steinbach clean sheet	31%	–	–
Eintracht Trier clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 5.1 4.6 3.1 1 8.0 10.5 5.9 2.3 2 8.2 9.6 5.6 2.3 3 5.4 6.2 3.7 4 2.7 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+TSV Steinbach down, Eintracht Trier across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,654 Regionalliga - SudWest matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Regionalliga - SudWest matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.9% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 4.17 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

TSV Steinbach at home: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Eintracht Trier away: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.96 goals for TSV Steinbach, 1.18 for Eintracht Trier. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~4.17

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~6 of 6

~~Last meetings~~EIN 1–1 TSV · TSV 3–2 EIN · EIN 1–2 TSV · TSV 1–1 EIN

Form · last six in Regionalliga - SudWest

TSV STEINBACH

LLWLWD3–4 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–2

EINTRACHT TRIER

LDWLWL0–2 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	SGV Freiberg	10	+15	20
2	Kickers Offenbach	11	+7	20
3	Stuttgarter Kickers	10	+6	20
4	VfR Aalen	10	+7	18
5	Freiburg II	9	+7	16
6	FC 08 Homburg	11	0	16
7	Eintracht Trier	10	0	16
8	VfR Mannheim	9	+5	14
9	TSV Steinbach	10	0	13
10	SV Sandhausen	10	−4	13
11	FSV Frankfurt	9	+1	12
12	Hessen Kassel	10	−2	11
13	Eintracht Frankfurt II	8	−1	10
14	FC Astoria Walldorf	10	−3	9
15	FSV Mainz 05 II	10	−11	9
16	Kaiserslautern II	9	−11	9
17	Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.	10	−8	6
18	SSV Ulm 1846	10	−8	5